I fail to see how Gstaff's post prevents TESV being announced this year. It's just unlikely that it will be announced soon.

Although I believe that TESV will be announced some time this year and released by the end of next year I think that some people have started getting a bit paranoid. It is funny how they interpret just about anything, from a simple change in the forums to a change in weather conditions, as a sign of the game's announcement.

Incorrect. When they added WET and Rouge Warrior did they overhaul the entire forum and prepare for future games to come?TES 5 is being announced this year. Don't let this N'wah fool you! He's trying to make us believe that TES 5 isn't coming out any time soon and get our hopes down, being this forum's only real damage control, sort of. Six Septim Gstaff!!!

Remember everyone, we are on TESting your knowledge 9, somebody came up with the theory that these questions are used to build up TES hype, with the recent change in the forums and the end of TESting your knowledge coming near, we may be very close to an announcement, you never know... :batman:

seriously, i really am almost certain that the "IF" part of this thread title is moot...

and yes, i'd say they are inching closer to an announcement based on the attention they've given the series lately (TESting your knowledge, The Infernal City). Checking bethblog and this forum has it's own place in my twice daily facebook/email/news web-schedule... i'm sure it's coming...

He's just giving an example of forums previously added. Having previously added forums and realizing that this setup is easier to add forums to doesn't mean that TESV won't be announced this year. In fact, I really can't figure your logic at all. I see the opposite. They know new forums will have to be added, so they updated to a new setup that is easier to add forums for.

The forum updates, I am certain, are not merely coincidental but play into their larger plans. Bethesda knows where they're going and is making appropriate updates accordingly. Does this guarantee a Monday announcement? No. Next week? Not a chance. I believe a TES:V announcement is near, but I also believe we would well be wise to temper our anticipation. I think the announcement is not days or weeks away, but rather months away. All indicators to me (trademarks, TESting your knowledge, forum updates, Oughton quote, books) seem to point to this summer as a time to be vigilant.

Here's the way I see the facts working together (in order of reliability):

1. Trademark. By my estimation after reading through the trademark law, and as others have researched and interpreted, Zenimax will need to renew their trademark application for 'Skyrim' sometime between July 19^th and October 11^th 2010. If our estimations and legal interpretations are correct, they've already renewed their trademark application the maximum number of times and cannot renew again without verifying its use in commerce. I give this the most reliability because it is a legal issue that falls outside the control of Zenimax/Bethesda. They HAVE to do use the name 'Skyrim' by July 19^th (or possibly until October 11^th) or else risk losing their trademark of the name altogether. Sections 2.88 and 2.89 in the trademark law govern this. My theory is that they'll verify Skyrim's use in commerce by accompanying their announcement with purchasable apparel with the Skyrim logo on it (hats, t-shirts, etc.).

2. Reviewer's Version of Book. I'm going to combine this in addition to the plot synopsis gaffes by Amazon and Waterstone since it seems reasonable to me that it was the same source that influenced this version of the book that also informed the retailers. According to the description in the reviewer's version of the book, the book bridges the gap between the end of Oblivion and the next game ? which is said to occur 200 years after Oblivion. In addition, the book further claims that the next Elder Scrolls game will be released in 2010. The big question here is where the book publisher got this information. My personal belief is that this was based on internal communication between Bethesda and Del Rey but that Del Rey mistakenly released this information. It seems like to me this would have been very useful information in the planning process for the books so I can see how it would have been known by Del Rey. It also seems way too specific of information to have been simply speculated even when considering the Paul Oughton quote, and Del Rey is too respectable to have blatantly fabricated it.

3. Paul Oughton Quote (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/bethesda-pencils-in-new-elder-scrolls-title-for-2010). The Paul Oughton quote deserves some credibility, although I don't give it much credibility in its detail. I do, however, consider it credible in verifying that there is indeed an Elder Scrolls title in development that could "potentially" be seen in 2010. Is this TES:V? Perhaps, but there are other possibilities (mobile phone game, TES inspired variant ala Redguard, etc). Does this mean a 2010 release is possible? Given the current time frame, no; but this gives considerable credibility in their being an announcement this year.

4. Todd Howard's Kotaku Interview (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/kotaku/2010/01/06/chatting-with-fallout-and-oblivions-todd-howard). The main piece of information from this interview is that Todd informed us that they began retooling the game engine for their next title when Fallout went gold October 8^th 2008. There has been some debate as to how this date lines up within their normal development cycle. Some believe this date marks when development began, but others speculate that this date really only indicates when Bethesda focused all their resources onto developing their next game. I'm inclined to embrace the latter view because I realize that large-team creative processes are normally organic, involving many different sub-teams responsible for various aspects of the overall endeavor. In other words, not all of the team was working just on engine updates beginning October 8^th. Borrowing from what we know of Oblivion and Fallout's development, a smaller team was likely split off from the main team developing Fallout to begin laying the groundwork for their next game. Given that they trademarked "Skyrim" in October of 2006, there had to have been some level of development beginning sometime before then. Either way, given their past history of releasing games roughly a year after announcing them, a late summer 2010 announcement with an early 2012 release still seems to fit within their normal 3-4 year development cycle.

5. Past Development Cycle Patterns. Others have already more eloquently presented the timeline (xXAntibodyXx's amazing chart: http://i40.tinypic.com/bj7993.png) for Bethesda's past games so I won't reiterate their charts. Given their fine work, I believe we can confidently assert that a Bethesda title released in 2011-2012 is not only possible, but probable. On the other hand, this is still far from certainty in that we're basing our prediction purely on past patterns ? and Bethesda is of course free to change the way they do things.

6. Elder Scrolls Books. Why release two novels on a series you don't plan to continue developing? In my view, their sole purpose is to maintain and elevate interest in the Elder Scrolls series. With Fallout extending the time between Elder Scrolls releases, the books provide a useful function in maintaining interest in the series. When we first heard of the books, I speculated that the first book marked the beginning of generating interest and that the second book would be released shortly after the announcement of the next game. So far, things seem to still be headed in that direction. If they announce TES:V this summer, releasing the book late this fall (or early next year) will be beneficial for two reasons. First, the book will likely benefit from a sales boost by rabid fans thirsting for any information they can find on TES:V. Second, it will perhaps relieve a bit of pressure from impatient fans demanding information about the next game.

7. TESting Your Knowledge. I admittedly haven't been following the questions too closely, but some around here have claimed to identify patterns in the questions. I'm not inclined to go quite this far, but I do believe it plays into the overall marketing strategy and deserves mentioning. It seems odd to begin this little trivia game (in addition to handing out copies of the first book) if it wasn't leading to something. Additionally, this can only go on for so long before interest wanes and people stop paying attention to the questions and the trivia in turn loses its effectiveness in generating interest in TES.

8. Forum Updates and New Community Manager Hire. As I said at the beginning of this post, the forum updates, I am certain, are not merely coincidental but play into their larger plans. Bethesda knows where they're going and is making appropriate updates accordingly. Once the next game is announced, these forums will see a huge flood of new members such as what we saw when Oblivion was announced. Therefore, it seems reasonable that they're preparing the forums for something. This isn't a very strong indicator, but it plays into the larger momentum I see unfolding.



There may be other key indicators for an approaching announcement, but these are what seem most convincing in my mind. Also, all games not developed specifically by Bethesda Game Studios should not be considered since they are only published by Bethesda and wouldn't impact in-house development (Brink, WET, FO:NV, etc.).

I'll agree with this, all the evidence points to it. It sure has been long enough.

Wow, Stain, way to compile all the information of 2 years of speculation into one post. Bravo.

Yes seeing all this evidence does get my hopes up.

Wow, nice job summarizing all that info!

If you're curious, this is the latest chart I've made:

http://i40.tinypic.com/bj7993.png

So yeah, it seems like a 2011-2012 release date is very likely.

I'm curious to hear what kind of patterns people see with the TESting your Knowledge for ESV.

I distinctly remember from a few threads ago someone (don't remember who) suggested that the questions were taken from each TES game sequentially, and speculated that the last question would only be answerable after playing the new game - kind of like a countdown. Like I said, I don't think it's likely the case and I believe that pattern has since broken. It seems possible that the questions could somehow be related to the next game, but I'm not a lore buff so I'm not seeing anything conclusive. Perhaps someone more adept could piece something together...

Impressive speculative consolidation, Stain; well done.


Regarding the TESting questions being used to reveal a release, I'd find it pretty unlikely. Considering it's the librarians at The Imperial Library who are coming up with the questions for Bethesda, I doubt they're getting marketing strategy marching orders for what kind of questions to put forth in anticipation of a final TES:V question.

Thanks...I've noticed that a lot of people are coming into the discussion ignorant of the ground already covered in previous threads so I thought it might be useful to put what I thought was important in a single post. It would be helpful if the mods creating successive threads kept up better with current information in the first post's summary.

I agree with you on the TESting questions. I don't personally believe the questions are leading to any final questions. It's possible the imperial library could be given general lore subjects from which to generate questions, but I think any further speculation here would too easily become misguided and fruitless.

It would be a pretty great way to announce TES V, though, wouldn't it?

I don't mean great as in an excellent marketing strategy. I mean great as in awesome.

Nice list, Stain. Top Score!

I don't see anything deeper or mysterious in the Trivia, but who knows?

Stain, you may want to add something about the Natal game into your summarization post. You can add the following if you'd like:

Back in September 2009, Microsoft released a list of companies working on a game for Natal. http://greenlightgamer.wordpress.com/2009/09/24/microsoft-announces-natal-partners/ reported that the companies listed were developers. http://greenlightgamer.wordpress.com/2009/09/24/microsoft-announces-natal-partners/ that the companies were publishers. Some simply said "Bethesda," and some said "Bethesda Softworks." The difference is important, as Bethesda Softworks is a publisher, while Bethesda Game Studios is a developer. No matter what, we know that Bethesda is involved in some way with Natal. It's possible that Bethesda may be making a TES Natal game, though they could be making something completely different. It's almost certainly not TESV, but it may be a spin-off game like The Elder Scrolls Adventures: Redguard was. Either way, we'll most likely be seeing a new forum sometime this year for a Natal game.

Oh don't get me wrong, it would be [censored] sweet to get an cryptic unanswerable question that everyone fails, which then rolls in a TES:V announcement.

Ah, yes, good catch. There are a couple details that could potentially impact the points I presented previously. Project Natal, and Bethesda's involvement, is one of them. My guess is that the game indirectly referred to by Bethesda's involvement is either a game they're publishing or that BGS's game is an Adventures game like Redguard. I am hoping for the former, but the time lines do potentially overlap for an Elder Scrolls spin off.

The other potential impact has to do with Zenimax Online's title. If it is indeed an Elder Scrolls title, then some of the indicators I've cited may be more related to that instead. This would, however, NOT impact whatever BGS is developing - only our speculation of it.

I almost added this to my post, but I thought it was getting lengthy enough already!

Well, it probably would have gotten delayed because they had to remake a lot of the parts of their engine. Right? Can't start up a roller coaster if you're still laying down the parts of the track. I'm sure their new engine mechanics would have a lot to do with how the game's played... right? I'm sort-of new at this speculation stuff.


Thank you so much for doing it though. I've wanted to ask numerous times "So, where are we at right now, collectively?" but... I don't spend much time here, so I didn't think it would be appropriate.

So, we are discussing when and IF(?) TESV is going to be released. Well, the "when" I get, but "if"? Has TES not been a major income for Bethesda? Has the games not been given praises both by critics and fans? Has it not had a major impact with RPG-gaming everytime a new game has been deliverd to the world? Is the release of a new TES game not the highlight of every RPG gamer (from a gaming perspective)? No, I will not discuss the question "if". I?m counting on it to be created and awesome.

Well we all know it's coming, but the mods just named it this to be politically correct. No need to get upset about it.

Oh, well... Thank you. I didn?t know that. But you have to agree, if there would have been a no-show for TESV, many would have reacted in a similiar way. But hey, you just made my day. :foodndrink:

Just rolled by to say great work Stain, and i'd really like to see that on the first or second post of the speculation threads from now on, that way the new people can see what has already been done like you said.