» Wed Mar 17, 2010 9:59 pm
This is a repost from the previous thread of my summary of what we know. All indicators to me (trademarks, TESting your knowledge, forum updates, Oughton quote, books) seem to point to this summer as a time to be vigilant.
Here's the way I see the facts working together (in order of reliability):
1. Trademark. By my estimation after reading through the trademark law, and as others have researched and interpreted, Zenimax will need to renew their trademark application for 'Skyrim' by July 31st 2010. If our estimations and legal interpretations are correct, they've already renewed their trademark application the maximum number of times and cannot renew again without verifying its use in commerce. I give this the most reliability because it is a legal issue that falls outside the control of Zenimax/Bethesda. They HAVE to do use the name 'Skyrim' by July 31st or else risk losing their trademark of the name altogether. Sections 2.88 and 2.89 in the trademark law govern this. My theory is that they'll verify Skyrim's use in commerce by accompanying their announcement with purchasable apparel with the Skyrim logo on it (hats, t-shirts, etc.).
2. Reviewer's Version of Book. I'm going to combine this in addition to the plot synopsis gaffes by Amazon and Waterstone since it seems reasonable to me that it was the same source that influenced this version of the book that also informed the retailers. According to the description in the reviewer's version of the book, the book bridges the gap between the end of Oblivion and the next game ? which is said to occur 200 years after Oblivion. In addition, the book further claims that the next Elder Scrolls game will be released in 2010. The big question here is where the book publisher got this information. My personal belief is that this was based on internal communication between Bethesda and Del Rey but that Del Rey mistakenly released this information. It seems like to me this would have been very useful information in the planning process for the books so I can see how it would have been known by Del Rey. It also seems way too specific of information to have been simply speculated even when considering the Paul Oughton quote, and Del Rey is too respectable to have blatantly fabricated it.
3. Paul Oughton Quote (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/bethesda-pencils-in-new-elder-scrolls-title-for-2010). The Paul Oughton quote deserves some credibility, although I don't give it much credibility in its detail. I do, however, consider it credible in verifying that there is indeed an Elder Scrolls title in development that could "potentially" be seen in 2010. Is this TES:V? Perhaps, but there are other possibilities (mobile phone game, TES inspired variant ala Redguard, etc). Does this mean a 2010 release is possible? Given the current time frame, no; but this gives considerable credibility in their being an announcement this year.
4. Todd Howard's Kotaku Interview (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/kotaku/2010/01/06/chatting-with-fallout-and-oblivions-todd-howard). The main piece of information from this interview is that Todd informed us that they began retooling the game engine for their next title when Fallout went gold October 8th 2008. There has been some debate as to how this date lines up within their normal development cycle. Some believe this date marks when development began, but others speculate that this date really only indicates when Bethesda focused all their resources onto developing their next game. I'm inclined to embrace the latter view because I realize that large-team creative processes are normally organic, involving many different sub-teams responsible for various aspects of the overall endeavor. In other words, not all of the team was working just on engine updates beginning October 8th. Borrowing from what we know of Oblivion and Fallout's development, a smaller team was likely split off from the main team developing Fallout to begin laying the groundwork for their next game. Given that they trademarked "Skyrim" in October of 2006, there had to have been some level of development beginning sometime before then. Either way, given their past history of releasing games roughly a year after announcing them, a late summer 2010 announcement with an early 2012 release still seems to fit within their normal 3-4 year development cycle.
5. Past Development Cycle Patterns. Others have already more eloquently presented the timeline (xXAntibodyXx's amazing chart: http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/1795/timeline11.png) for Bethesda's past games so I won't reiterate their charts. Given their fine work, I believe we can confidently assert that a Bethesda title released in 2011-2012 is not only possible, but probable. On the other hand, this is still far from certainty in that we're basing our prediction purely on past patterns ? and Bethesda is of course free to change the way they do things.
6. Elder Scrolls Books. Why release two novels on a series you don't plan to continue developing? In my view, their sole purpose is to maintain and elevate interest in the Elder Scrolls series. With Fallout extending the time between Elder Scrolls releases, the books provide a useful function in maintaining interest in the series. When we first heard of the books, I speculated that the first book marked the beginning of generating interest and that the second book would be released shortly after the announcement of the next game. So far, things seem to still be headed in that direction. If they announce TES:V this summer, releasing the book late this fall (or early next year) will be beneficial for two reasons. First, the book will likely benefit from a sales boost by rabid fans thirsting for any information they can find on TES:V. Second, it will perhaps relieve a bit of pressure from impatient fans demanding information about the next game.
7. TESting Your Knowledge. I admittedly haven't been following the questions too closely, but some around here have claimed to identify patterns in the questions. I'm not inclined to go quite this far, but I do believe it plays into the overall marketing strategy and deserves mentioning. It seems odd to begin this little trivia game (in addition to handing out copies of the first book) if it wasn't leading to something. Additionally, this can only go on for so long before interest wanes and people stop paying attention to the questions and the trivia in turn loses its effectiveness in generating interest in TES.
8. Forum Updates and New Community Manager Hire. The recent forum updates, I am certain, are not merely coincidental but play into their larger plans. Bethesda knows where they're going and is making appropriate updates accordingly. Once the next game is announced, these forums will see a huge flood of new members such as what we saw when Oblivion was announced. Therefore, it seems reasonable that they're preparing the forums for something. This isn't a very strong indicator, but it plays into the larger momentum I see unfolding.
There may be other key indicators for an approaching announcement, but these are what seem most convincing in my mind. Also, all other games not developed specifically by Bethesda Game Studios should not be considered since they are only published by Bethesda and wouldn't impact in-house development (Brink, WET, FO:NV, Zenimax Online's MMO, etc.).