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Oblivion release date: March 20, 2006 (US)
Fallout 3 release date: October 28, 2008 (US)
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Yes, they are working on the game for quite some time now.
No, I don't think it will be released this year.
Yes, I think they will announce it this year.
No, I don't think they will announce it first on E3.
Yes, I think that they will announce it in the (around) July edition of Game Informer first.
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You get the idea. Announcement this year, game of the year next year and so on...
***MY SPECUALTION***
A development of a planned game is being started just after if not even before the final release of the latest game in this case Fallout 3 (just a "small" team continues to work on the patches and DLC's). Except of that, different teams are working on the Elder Scrolls than on Fallout (artists, storyline makers and so on).
P.S.
What's up with that Skyrim trademark? What's the big deal? If they loose it can't they just register it again?
P.P.S.
DON'T FREAKING FLAME ON THIS REPLY.
-reply something educated and useful.
~entR
The reason I "flamed" you last time is because you sounded like you were trying to give us facts, not speculation. And my last reply was indeed useful, as it corrected all of the stuff you seemed to be presenting as facts. But you said you're speculating now, so it's all good, sorry if I sounded harsh last time.
The Skyrim trademark is important because, and I'll repeat what I said last time, Bethesda has never trademarked anything from the Elder Scrolls that wasn't used for the title of a game or an expansion. So it's practically guaranteed it will be set there.
If the trademark expires, yes, they can just file for it again. However the fact that they've had it trademarked for so long points to their next game being set there.