...EVERY TIME Microsoft, or Sony, or an industry anolyst talks about this generation, they say it's going to last much longer than 2012. Microsoft has said MULTIPLE times that the Xbox 360 hasn't even hit the halfway point in it's life-cycle yet. Chances are that Fallout 4 will be a launch title for the next generation, but TESV would come out waaaaay too early, I doubt the next generation will have even been announced yet. This generation is different, the hardware in current consoles are sufficient to keep this generation going for many years. Of course, the Wii isn't, but the Wii is irrelevant when talking about TESV because Todd Howard would never develop a TES or Fallout game for it.
Unfortunately, I have to disagree on this point. This generation's consoles are really starting to show their age. There may be a little bit more performance they can squeeze out of them, but not much. We are already seeing the console version of some games being scaled down form the PC version. In fact, a midrange PC can run circles around the current consoles. It's to the point where there aren't a lot of advantages to buying a high-end gaming PC. We don't need one b/c most developers are catering to consoles due to piracy issues, IMO. So, PC hardware really isn't being pushed all that hard these days. Many developers don't want to spend the resources to create a game natively on all platforms, so they make a game that the consoles can handle, and the PC may get a slightly better version. But until a new console generation is released, we are only delaying the future of gaming. In fact, as far as video performance goes, we are currently at DX11.__ and many of these features aren't even being implemented. The tech used for this generation's consoles may have been somewhat impressive 5 years ago, but not anymore. If we may not be getting new consoles until 2015, how sad will those consoles look then? What will PC's be capable of 5 years from now? The interesting thing is that the vido card that is implemented in the PS3 is almost identical to the card my PC was using almost 5 years ago.
Now, I will say, that it is not necessary for a console to have the same raw power that a PC has. They are optimized to run games specifically for their platform and therefore do not have all the bloat that a PC has. The PC will always have other systems runing in the background in order to operate, and even if it didn't, it would require better hardware then a console b/c PC games have to be developed with many systems in mind. They don't have the advantage of being optimized as well as a console game.
That being said, they are still way behind. It's quite obvious too. The 360 struggles to keep Oblivion at 30fps. I can run Oblivion on my PC and typically I'm getting between 60-150fps...and that's a modded Oblivion that's harder to run then vanilla 360 is. I know this sounds like a silly example, but Oblivion was practically a release title and my current PC isn't even close to being highend.
Now I know there are many variables that effect how a game will perform on any given title. In some cases, the devs will just need to get creative to tweak out a little more performance, but there is a limit to how far the can go with this.
We need to all realize that these consoles have always been marketed as being much more powerful then they really are. Besides, it's not good for business if they announce a new console even if there is one in the works. Their sales numbers always go down once that happens, as everyone gets ready for the new generation coming out. Let's face it, MS and Sony claiming these consoles have a realistic 10-year life cycle is crap. What this is really about is money, not technology. MS and Sony spent way too much bringing these consoles to market, so they have to keep it going as long as possible to make back their R&D losses. Once they announce a new console, it's back to square one for them, and the cycle continues.
Now obviously, we don't know what's being said behind closed doors and the devs have access to this info well ahead of time, but how giddy would Todd Howard be tonight if he found out a new Xbox were coming soon? He'd be living on cloud 9 for quite a while, I'm sure, knowing he wont be limited by aging tech.
******Note: this was not intended to be a console bashing thread, so I hope it isn't taken that way. I own 3 consoles and enjoy them very much, but I felt this point needed to be made.******