» Wed Jan 20, 2010 1:33 pm
I've done a little digging around, since we're running dry of on-topic convo again... go figure.
http://www.vgreleases.com/ReleaseDates/All-12-2010.aspx?OrderBy=sortdate - a website dedicated to keeping track of all future game releases, and when they are due. This link leads to the December 2010 section, where amongst countless random titles we can see anticipated games like APB, Rage, Six Days in Fallujah, The Witcher: Rise of the White Wolf, DC Universe Online, FFXIV Online, Fable 3, Castlevania: Lords of Shadow, and many others. Amongst all those titles, we can also find The Elder Scrolls V.
Sounds good until you also see games like Gears of War 3, Half Life 2: Episode 3, Final Fantasy Versus XIII, Killzone 3, and Zelda Wii on the same list. Games that we have heard nothing about as far as release dates go, and in some cases, lots about EXCEPT for release dates. Now lets take a game in a similar boat to TES:V - one that we've heard nothing about, but can safely assume it's being worked on - Gears of War 3. Gears 2 was released in late 2008, with a 2 year turn-around being expected for this sort of game (same engine etc). However, having heard nothing about a Gears 3, it seems a little unlikely that it will make a 2010 release doesn't it? Far more likely that if it is shown at E3 then a 2011 release will seem more believable. This becomes even more apparent when you anolyze a game like Fable 3, which again has around a 2 year turn-around since the engine is up to scratch. The difference is that Fable 3 is in the hype stage. It's been shown at Microsoft's X10 and will likely play a large role at ths year's E3, and yet it still has a release date of late 2010, just like currently unannounced games Gears 3 and TES:V have in some people's eyes.
So the question i'm posing to you: If a game like Fable 3, which is now in the marketing phase, building hype, and generating as much interest from potential customers as it can, is shooting for a late 2010 release... then is it still realistic to assume that a game like TES:V which hasn't even been announced yet, let alone shown to generate interest, is going to be released before the end of 2010? It looks far more likely that a 2010 release is really beyond all hope, and that 2011 is now the most hopeful option. Combine this with Antibody's prediction timeline, and late 2011 / early 2012 is probably the realistic option.