You just said....my reverse opinion, for I think all those changes are positive and nothing to do with "Dumbing down" (God I hate that term)
Anyway I think this system is better because it offers a wider variety of character choices but removes all the excess clutter. Trust me I'm a math major and I don't see this as anything to do with "dumbing down" for their was really nothing smart about it to begin with. It just offers more variety, player progression, and fun all at once.
But it depends on how it's executed.
Again:
Fallout 3 has 73 available perks and allows the character to take 30.
Fallout New Vegas currently has 105 and currently allows the character to take 22. By the release of the last DLC, it'll probably have ~112 perks and allow the character to take 25.
Fallout 3 had skill boosts that barely qualified as perks, then the other perks were boosts to defense, damage, crit etc. that almost any character was allowed to take.
Fallout New Vegas perks provided abilities, and the perks that are universally good (+damage, +defense, +health regen) were limited to players with specific attribute builds, meaning not everyone was allowed to take them.
If Skyrim does it like Fallout 3 was done, every character is going to end up being the same, because with time, some perks will be recognized as superior and there will be nothing keeping someone from taking all the superior perks, since skills can go as high as you want (no skill requirements for perks, essentially), attributes have been axed (no attribute requirements for perks) and you have PLENTY of perk slots.
If they do it like New Vegas, then we'll need a LOT of different perks for defense, a lot of different perks for attack, a lot of different perks for stealth and a lot of different perks for each weapon type. If there aren't enough good perks for each weapon type/play style, then there's nothing to keep the player occupied and prevent him from taking perks from literally every category.
And honestly? We can expect to have like ~75 perks. I sincerely doubt that they'll be able to come up with even 12 useful perks for bows, meaning that any character will easily be able to become a master marksman.