[edit] For some reason I didn't read to the bottom of the thread before responding, so my first paragraph is pretty much what Vacuity said. Second one offers some ideas, tho!
Now, wolves do run at 35 - 40 mph.
That's quite a bit faster than I thought! But just like humans, they can't keep that up for more than a quick burst. So yes, if there's a wolf within 30 meters of an Olympic gold medalist and they both start running at once, the wolf will probably catch him; the wolf has a good lunge (acceleration) and an impressive top speed. But boost that to 80 meters and even your average every-day jogger might get away, because we're far more efficient at
maintaining speed. That sprint is extremely costly to the wolf; their long-distance speed is more like 5 mph. You show a trend of reducing speeds with a few sprint records, but remember that the implied curve is not a simple parabola; the trend flattens back out. A human's distance-running speed averages twice as fast as a wolf's, with the top end approaching three times.
Unfortunately, Oblivion doesn't model short-term fatigue and the options for (safely) adjusting speed on the fly are limited. I've got a hunch the best way to handle this is to set the wolf's intrinsic speed based on what it can maintain (i.e. ~5mph), and give it a speed-boosting, fatigue-damaging
potion, lasting maybe 6 or 10 seconds, whenever it (1) is in combat, (2) is running, (3) has a full fatigue bar and (4) isn't currently under that potion's effects. That set of conditions allows you to write the script and forget about it; any balance adjustments can be done by editing the specifics of the potion. (I'm assuming here that creatures in combat have a
not-running state; otherwise, parameter #2 might need some expansion.)