Arena ended about 34 years before Oblivion began, if I'm remembering things correctly. I just checked and the UESP confirms it. Arena ended in 399 while Oblivion began in 433. Uriel Septim was locked up for 10 years in Oblivion and I doubt Martin is at least 44 years old. Jauffre also said that Uriel would ask about the boy's progress from time to time, and Uriel can't do that from Oblivion. It may have been Tharn who did it, instead, but I don't see how Tharn would know about that secret nor why he would care about the boy's progress. Tharn would have likely just killed Martin if he knew of his existence. If Uriel asked about the boy's progress from time to time, then he must have truly been a boy progressing and for that to happen, Martin must be at least about 50 years old or he must have been born after Arena. I believe the latter is more likely. At Arena's end, Uriel would have been 53 years old, and so I believe he may have had a child, at that point. Men never stop producing sperm, in our world, and men as old as 90 have had children, in our world.
Okay, I suppose it is rather likely that Uriel would still e able to get women in his old age, being a rich emporer with Patrick Stewarts voice and all
This Jauffre theory also explains why the eternal champion wasn't around, because he was, Jauffre also identifies with the CoC, as neither of them saved the world for themselves,(CoC, was behind the scenes while Martin was the hero and the Eternal Champion was also bound by service to the emporer, rather than being a proactive hero himself, the EC is reactive in Arena, he isn't trying to change the world, only to restore it) Jauffre also seems uite humble about his achievements, explainin why he doesn't announce himself as the EC
EDIT: Martin may be older though, as to become an acclomplished, Daedric follower, Priest and mage he had to hve gotten around, and Tharn may have usd his magely powers to influence Martin to the deadric path, perhaps grooming him to be a succesor