1) Vvardenfell was where Red Mountain resided, the second tower. It was also the home of Vivec, and the home of the heads of Redoran. However, Aldu'Rhun was already crushed during the Oblivion Crisis, and raided by nords and orc mercs on their mainland holding so Redoran from that point on was on the verge of collapse. Indoril, actually, was also on the verge of collapse, as they haven't really recovered since Vivec signed the armistice with Tiber Septim. This was due to in large part by their leaders committing suicide when that treaty was signed. Also, Inordil was still practically living in the 2nd era, so they were behind in every aspect. In fact, it was a pass-by topic between NPCs that Telvanni, Helseth, Hlaalu, and Dres were "picking apart the carcass of house Indoril." So, by the time it was almost the Oblivion Crisis, Telvanni, Hlaalu, Dres, and Helseth were the players with power. However, the dunmer were hit pretty hard during the OB Crisis, as evident by how the Telvanni were really the only ones able to close the gates, but still had an extremely difficult time.
Fast forwarding to post-Crisis, most of Morrowind would have been in not such a good position as is. Then the Red Year came. The Ministry of Truth fell, causing Red Mountain to lose its [censored] (and to put it in context, Red Mountain itself is roughly half the size of Olympus Mons in real life). As was extremely heavy (there is still a few feet of ash in what was Vivec, even 40-20ish years after the MoT fell) and is very likely, ash would have descended southwards, along with tsunamis. With Morrowind hit pretty hard, the argonians invaded like madmen, likely kicking Dres to the curb initially (this is due to Dres holding the majority of its land in southern Morrowind, close to the Black Marsh border). From there, the argonians got as far north as what was Vivec city, so it is very likely the argonians completely massacred the dunmer, forcing them to go to Solstheim. Also to remember, the argonians kicked Mehrunes Dagon's forces during the Crisis, making them more powerful if you think about it.
I'm aware of how the events themselves played out (and I appreciate the forum for listening--I know how many "How can they do this!!!" topics are floating around, so I'm trying to avoid such a pitfall), it's just
how they occurred that strains my credulity.
I'm aware that Indoril was on the decline, as was Redoran, but Houses Dres and Hlaalu were, apparently, still rich and powerful. Rich enough to hire mercenaries at the very least. And with the seat of Hlaalu and Dres power being on the mainland, it's difficult for me to see them just get swamped by the Argonains, who they've been beating for generations. Sure, there is the fact that the Hist suddenly called them back and had them close Oblivion Portals (which in itself is so odd to me--why would the Hist wait for this moment, when the Argonians have been TES whipping boys since the setting's outset?). But the Dunmer know exactly how to fight them, and I just can't see someone like Helseth sitting on his hands instead of using a national crisis to solidify his control.
Maybe I need to know more about the "Red Year", but c'mon, Dunmeri culture was entirely built around having to deal with ash. Remember the ash-sweeping guilds in Vivec? Being miserable under a bunch of ash is their national passtime.
Vaardenfel was large, true, but the vast majority of that size was barren, uninhabited Ashlands, much like how most of Russia is lonely steppe and tundra. Vivec was the only major city on the island, as opposed to Tear, Necrom, Narsis, Almalexia, the Telvanni island holds etc... Morrowind was rich, it had a long-standing military tradition (I also don't buy that a country that turns out Ordinators and Byouant Admigers couldn't close gates, but I'll concede that the fact of the matter is they somehow didn't). A Morrowind without Vaardenfel would be in trouble, yes, but enough that the Argonains literally just kick them to the curb? All of this seems very inorganic to me. I suppose I feel as though the devs made this crisis to speed up the clock, but it seems just that--fabricated. I know what the devs say happen, it's just that it's hard for me to imagine it going like that. Maybe I underestimate Vaardenfel. And I certainly think the goddam Dunmer should've dismantled the Minsitry of Truth when they had the chance.
Still, I like the mental image of Dagoth Ur finally defeating the Tribunal, declaring he'd purge the rest of the country of the n'wah, and immediately taking a mountain to the face.