It's all in the "OR".

So. If you have Shivering Isles installed, apply ONLY the SI patch. If you don't have Shivering Isles installed, apply ONLY the Oblivion patch.
In other words, the SI patch covers both.
Choose the correct one, and install that first. Then, whatever unofficial patches apply. Oblivion, no matter what. Shivering Isles, if you have that. Official Mods, for those that you have (i.e., DLC). Then, the Supplementals for the unofficial patches you've already installed (this simply updates them). And done.