Oblivion's pacing was a reaction to Morrowind, namely its failure to easily grab people into the game at the word 'go.' So they constructed a dramatic intro, a dramatic plot motivation, and a dramatic obvious next step that never ever let up until the MQ was finished for Oblivion. Which was a notable problem.
They really do need that initial grab effect (or rather, they're going to use it whether we want it or no) so this would be my ideal pacing:
1. Prisoner start, about to be executed, dragon attacks prison, player flees. Provides excitement, tension, gripping action, immediate encounter with the game's primary motivation, a la Oblivion's intro.
2. Prisoner finds some clue or plot advancement item while fleeing. Something as simple as a letter, a symbol, etc. But this secondary plot motivation would be reminiscent of Morrowind's instructions, something not entirely urgent and that doesn't make direct plot sense.
3. Along following the MQ, the player receives logical breaks where the MQ givers have no work available, or they tell the PC they need faction reputation or tell them to go out and explore. Like Caius's 'here's 200 drakes, go get more capable.'
4. When the MQ hits a certain critical mass, it jumps into Oblivion mode, slamming on the pedal and not letting up until the deed is done.
The combination of 1 and 2 will both give the player the sense of urgency to understand what's going on, while making the trail veiled enough to not make it automatically a matter of immediate pursuit. So they can have their action-packed gripping intro and motivation, while at the same time having the slow-paced approach to figuring out what to do with that urgency.
That's pretty good, and I think the whole "Dragon" Thing is more complimentary to decent pacing than Basically "The Armies of Hell are Invading".
Oblivion's antagonist, Oblivion itself, for the most part, was truly this unstoppable force, and we were introduced to it right from the start. Conversely, Morrowind's antagonist, Dagoth Ur and the Ash Vampires didn't come in until around the time you got Corprus.
With Dragons, you have a very interesting plot to explore. Why are the Dragons Here, but they, individually, or hell, even in groups, don't seem like this unstoppable monstrosity the same way the Hordes of Oblivion would. The next step, is making Alduin more or less rational. Dagoth Ur didn't so much seek to destroy the land of Morrowind, he sought to cast out the False tribunal Gods, and restore Morrowind to it's original glory as the Chimer experienced before the original battle at Red Mountain. At least, that's what he says. How Alduin will fit in, on the scale of crazy remains to be seen.
Jumping off to another game with good pacing, Mass Effect 1. The game starts off very similar in feel to Morrowind. There's this intro, where you're dumped into what amounts to your pre-hero career as a fairly typical Special Operations soldier. You're introduced to the Antagonist, and hints to the "Impending Doom" of the Reaper, without telling you what it really is.
After that, you're introduced to the Galaxy and the majority of the main players on the Citadel. The overall pace takes a shift down, while you gather allies and seek answers. When it's finally done, and you're free to roam the Galaxy, there still is no sense of extreme urgency, because the crushingly dire circumstances haven't been introduced yet. As far as you know, you're just tracking a single person, who is a great threat, but not a galaxy-eating threat. Mass Effect stays at this palatable pace for "As long as the player chooses" as you explore the key plot points, or wander off into the galaxy. Not until All the pieces of the puzzle are assembled, and the true gravity of the threat is revealed, does the game Kick-in to that Oblivion pace "Holy Sh*t we're gonna die, move your ass" at Ilos, and that's exactly the right point.
Where Oblivion starts at "Ilos" and Morrowind never gets passed "The Citadel", I'm hoping that Skyrim can find that pacing, though all told, I'd much rather have Morrowind's pace, than Oblivion's any day, for an open-world game.
Edit: The_ugly_guy_at_the_Store + Thatoneguy has to totally look like sockpuppeting, lol.