I hear people always saying that Oblivion's lockpicking was too easy, which it was if you knew how to do it, but people have to realize Oblivion could just be a stepping stone to truly making lockpicking difficult. In the previous games it took no player skill whatsoever, it was all dicerolls. In Oblivion they took a step in the right direction with lock picking and hopefully in Skyrim the lockpicking minigame comes back but more difficult on the hard locks and also in real time so you can't sit there forever trying to lockpick the door because a guard could walk by or the someone else might catch you.
Real time good, player skill bad. I want my perks/skill to be the deciding factor, not my keen twitch skills. I like how Fallout prevented you from opening higher level locks if you skill was low, I assume Beth will do this for Skyrim. Why should I be able to pick a hard lock if I am playing a mage, or some dumb warrior.
The reason there are stats is for them to matter, in Skyrim Beth seems to be trying to emphasize this more, by getting rid of redundant stats and using to perks to more clearly differentiate skills. Todd said that they really want it make feel like you are getting better in stuff now, that choices in skills really matter. If I don't bother getting lock picking perks from the stealth skill, why should I be able to open locks with ease. Why even use those perks/skill. This would pull the game in the wrong direction and be counter to what Todd said.
That said, I could still see some sort of mini game(like FO3, were your skill matters, unlike OB) because Todd also want the world to be immersive and fully realized. So making it feel like your really picking a lock would do that,but using the something like FO3 method to prevent game stats having no meaning.