no matter how long i wait, there is never one single time throughout the entire day when there isnt someone in the second floor. infact, the bottom floor is never empty either. i just sneak into the portal while that woman has her back turned. exactly at 1 oclock every day of the week that irval guy or w/e his name is goes in the second floor, and never ever leaves! the wiki claims he's only supposed to stay there until 4, but he doesnt, as soon as he walks in he never comes back out!!!!!!!!!!

how am i supposed to do this quest without getting killed or having all my stolen equipment taken away from me?????????????????????

When the Hannibal is on the second floor, go up to the third floor and take the staff. He may follow you so be quick about grabbing it, then go over to his nightstand and put the note in. You'll have plenty of time to leave.

You won't get a bounty just from them seeing you go into those areas because the portals aren't locked.

I wouldn't loiter too long after stealing the staff Hannibal chases you down and summons a storm atronarch. I got away by heading down below the bridge.

Wait till four, then wait untill they leave, enter the second floor traven should come out sometime, if not go up while sneaking if you've high enough sneak it should work.
If not buy potions, scrolls and spells of chameleon, use them then do the quest without being spotted.

Remember sneak before you enter, and stick to the shadows.

yeah, i noticed that for some odd reason if i sneak in the shadows ppl dont notice me. that girl is literally standing infront of me staring right at me and my eye thing is still dim. and in a cave once, i snuck into these shadows and smacked right into a goblin, didnt even notice me. i killed it with a sneak attack with its face right up against mine. and on an earlier game while i was doing a dark brotherhood quest, i was in some dark hallway sneaking around and some guy who was patrolling actually bumped into me and pushed me over from behind. i didnt know what happened until i let my nighteye wear off, then i saw it was pitch black. and i didnt have chameleon or invisibility any of those times.

That's not an "odd reason" - that's how it works in Oblivion.

It's great when that happens I turned away for a second and jumped when this popped up, just huffing all over no clue my character was there!
http://i1098.photobucket.com/albums/g376/Indep/Oblivion2010-10-0613-11-00-67-1.jpg