I just looked it up, and Fallout 3 was released on 10/28/2008. New Vegas was released 10/19/2010. Does this mean we can expect the next installment in about 13 months (10/XX/2012)? And if so, would that mean that the development team is well into development of the next game?

Given the history of how Beth do things, I would say they'd have announced things already if that were the case. New Vegas was announced in Feburary 2010, over a year before release. Same with Fallout 3.

Unless I'm missing something, that would be 8 months; presumably, we'd hear news of the next game early next year if they followed suit.

Derp. Yeah, had a bit of a tardish moment then.

I think it'll be a little longer than that before announcment though. Especially if they're going to use the new, Skyrim engine. I think Fallout New Vegas was released so soon after FO3 is because the mechanics and gameplay were already in place. Fallout 3 was in production for about three or so years I think, despite already having the engine they used for Oblivion (and Morrowind though heavily modified), due to them being drastically different.

attempting to draw a correlation with only 2 points of data is rather silly.

Eh, I figured maybe they were trying to release a new game every other year. Though they are switching to a new engine, presumably they could have been in development for some time, as Skyrim ready to go. I guess we won't know until the beginning of the next year; if there's no news by about February, there's pretty much no chance of a new game in 2012.

I would guess that, at the very least, the concept of the next game is more or less set, no?

It depends on if BethGS will be doing Fallout 4 or TES 6 next. Impossible to tell.

I doubt that it'll be TES 6, I find it unlikely that they'd dish out two in a row and leave Fallout to collect dust.

I really hope we'll get it within the next couple of years (I need my Fallout fix and NV didn't fufill it).

This one's also more exciting, because we'll be getting a shiny new engine. It's almost painful waiting for news about the next game.

I know what you mean, there's just nothing that seems to be like Fallout on the market (Fallout being unique is a double edged sword, it has a very different identity but you have to wait longer to play games like it) and we'll need to get Skyrim out of the way before F4 (I like TES but not as much as Fallout).

I doubt it, they just finished Skyrim, almost. No way they would release another big title like Fallout 4. I would expect some info to be released next year though.

I expect Fallout 4 to be announced sometime in 2013, and released on October 21, 2014

i keep looking for similar games but nothing comes close.there never as huge or as free to roam.i always miss the little things like repairing stuff and scaving junk.no matter how many i try i always come back to fallout.youd think by now another company would recognise its excellence and try and copy it.sure it probably wouldnt be as good but at least it would see you through the wait for the next fallout.isnt there some way we can ask bethesda this question to save speculation.

Fallen earth is going to be free to play soon, I hear.

Just gonna have to wait until Skyrimm is realesed. No point in taking the spotlight off of it just before it's released.
Even if they have some work going on, i would say they will wait until Skyrimm starts selling it self before they start putting any word out on the next Fallout.

That much I'm sure is true, at least. We won't hear about anything until next year at the earliest, IMO. I hope we do, though; even if it's early in development, It'd be nice to have a setting to speculate about.