I'm just going to make my case on what I think is canon, plain and simple:****(My post will contain minor spoilers to support my opinion)***Independent VegasIs this my favorite ending? No, I myself would be a House supporter, but I can see the writing on the wall.
-Chris Avellone has stated, multiple times, that Independent Vegas is his favorite.
-Josh Sawyer has also expressed love for Independent Vegas.
-Arcade Gannon can constantly be asked his opinion of the current state of the Mojave. He'll be angry if you support Caesar, less than pleased with House, willing to settle with NCR, but VERY happy with Independent Vegas. Independent Vegas even allows you to skip a requirement for his companion quest that the other three all have to meet.
-Fallout canon endings until now have always been "good," as in, the ending slides show positive outcomes. In New Vegas, only the NCR and Independent Vegas can leave everyone with a good ending; House or Caesar have to step on someone's toes.
-Ulysses is most supportive of an Independent Vegas. He has unique reactions for Independent Vegas, arguably more dialog for it, and he shows support for the death of Caesar and House, while calling the NCR and the Legion both old ideas that are doomed to fail, saying all three of the "Old World factions" (NCR, House, Legion) need to die before any new world nations or ideas can grow.
-The Courier's backstory is that he once made the long journeys and deliveries neccesary to allow a nation to grow. According to Ulysses, he is solely responsible for the growth and success of the nation at the Divide. However, through neglect, the Courier accidently destroyed the Divide by awakening "Old world ghosts" via a package delivery, triggering the detonation of the nuclear bombs below the Divide. With Independent Vegas, this could be seen as the Courier's chance to make things right; to attempt to build up a nation again, doing it right this time. Or, if they wanted to go in a different direction, the Courier, true to Ulysses' description, could remain "good at dodging death, while simultaneously bringing it to all those around you." The Courier could either stand by Independent Vegas and be responsible for a new nation, or the Platinum Chip with House/Yes Man could be another story of the Courier awakening Old World Ghosts and accidently destroying a nation, forcing him to take to the road once again. They can take this in both directions, giving them room to do whatever they like.
-Last and probably least, the Independent Vegas Courier's Duster is the one seen in the ending slide for Lonesome Road.
Again, I get people have opinions of which ending they think is the best moral decision, or which ending they'd like to see. But all emotions and beliefs aside, I believe the
in-game evidence and hints seem to point towards Independent Vegas. All foreshadowing tells us the NCR and Legion are doomed to fail, and only House is the only other faction without signifigant foreshadowing suggesting he needs to go. However, there's little info on House in general, while there IS a lot that seems to insist the player support an Independent Vegas.
Ever wonder why you haven't heard a single reference from Fallout 3? And ED-E is not from D.C., he's probably from Chicago. The same thing will apply to Vegas. There is no cannon ending. It's what you make of it. I wouldn't be surprised if we heard maybe one conversation in a future fallout game give a very vague description than can be interpretted a million ways.
True for Bethesda, not so true for Obsidian.
Bethesda never tells us what becomes of the Nerevarine; we just get a rumor that he "disappeared."
Bethesda never tell us what became of the Champion of Cyrodiil; Skyrim is set hundreds of years afterwards, so it's unlikely he's discussed there.
But there WAS a canon Vault Dweller. He defeated the Master.
And there WAS a canon Chosen One. He stopped the Enclave.