I have the steam version of Oblivion. Just recently everytime I launch the game the launcher crashes instantly and displays the Windows 7 "this program has stopped working" message. I'm certain that my computer can run it and everything, as I've been playing oblivion on this computer since release day.

What I've tried so far:
re-installing
disabling steam community in-game
downloading graphics card drivers
the "set launch options" trick
running directly from the .exe (the steam version directs to the launcher, even if you run from the exe)
verifying the cache and defragmenting the cache

none of these things have worked. anyone have an idea?