Makes sense, keep in mind though that the Nords under Ulfric will likely at one time or another go to war with the Thalmor, although they are definitely less likely to free Valenwood, they are also slightly less likely to occupy Valenwood in a new Empire. So that might be worth your consideration as well.
I say slightly less likely, because as of now Ulfric doesn't seem to have any intentiosn of ruling the Empire, but I don't see why that would stay the same in the future.
So who would most likely help us defeat the Thalmor, but not occupy Valenwood. I can't really see that happening anytime soon. It would be interesting to see if the Stormcloaks took Skyrim how that would play out. Ulfric wants a society dedicated to worshiping the Nordic gods, so his ultimate beef would be with the Thalmor. Not that he would lead a conquest all the way to Summerset, but he would want to get rid of any Thalmor presence in Skyrim for sure. Clever of those Thalmor to use the Empire to enforce their rules.
I've been wondering how this whole thing will play out with the Thalmor. With the Oblivion Crisis and Alduin, those were/are events that seem like a pretty open and shut case to me. You vanguish them and life continues, albeit shaken up a bit, on in Tamriel. These instances of conflict are easily broken up across different game releases. The conflicts have a beginning and an end. Political strife is different though. Take the Civil War for example. Who will ultimatly win? I mean, you can play out either way across multiple games, or you can simply ignore the war altogether.
So I guess my question is, in the past, how has Bethseda resolved events that could have had multiple outcomes such as the Civil War?