Do you think its possible for a Fallout 4? : Fallout Series Discussion

» Fri May 27, 2011 6:45 pm

I doubt it.

In fact, I doubt there will be a Bethseda in 4 years.

1. Bethseda has two sister studios, Viral and Zenimax online. I've yet to see anything regarded as wildly successfull on Viral's site, and ZO is making an MMO. MMO's are incredibly expensive to make, usually fail, and often take the company with them. So basically, 3 studios are living on Bethseda's revenue.

2. Bethseda shipped 4.7 million units. According to NPD, and some math, Bethseda's barely sold half of that by January. Generally speaking, not selling your initial shipment by the time you're out of your major sales window is regarded as bad. Especially when you spent the marketing budget usually reserved for movies.

So basically, the most likely scenario at this point is this.

Zenimax feels the pinch from ZO and Viral burning through cash, starts to run low prior to TES V's release which will likely be 2010. Pushes Bethseda to release early, which leads to a lower quality product, which leads to lower sales, which continues the circle.

It's just math and history. NPD's numbers + the precedent set by other studios like 3do.

You can have all the awards in the world, but if your units sit on shelves, it doesn't matter.

This is the problem with high-risk, high-reward releases. FO3 may have sold alot of units (regardless of success of the initial shipment), but they still need to balance the cheque-book. I think now more than ever due the recent state of the economy, high-risk is a quick way to kill your business. I think this is a good lesson to game developers that try to add a glossy polish to a game with expensive gimicks like hiring big name actors for voice overs, and focusing on building a good-looking gameworld and then not leaving yourself enough time to work on what really matters. A game that has a good direction and focus in the development stage may not be embraced as substantially by the mainstream, but the development costs can still be made and surpassed with lesser sales.

» Sat May 28, 2011 8:26 am

I think it's a bit too early to make esumptions, but maybe there will be a FO4, because the 3rd won lots of GOTY titles.

» Sat May 28, 2011 6:04 am

I doubt it.

In fact, I doubt there will be a Bethseda in 4 years.

Interesting. If you had told me Bethesda spent their way into bankruptcy in 2006 after Oblivion I would have said they deserved it and good riddance. But I feel like they really turned it around with Fallout 3 (not completely, but a step in the right direction), and as an Elder Scrolls fan I would say Fallout 3 gives me hope for the future of TES. It would be the epitome of irony if Fallout 3 was the game that ended up bankrupting ZeniMax.

Where does the $300 million investment Zenimax received in October 2007 for the MMO fit into your hypothesis? Do you think Bethesda has blown through it already, or maybe it wasn't enough to begin with ($300m seems low these days)? I'd imagine most of their success with Oblivion was invested in Fallout 3, not ZeniMax's MMO. I wonder if the state of the economy hasn't cut into Fallout 3's sales. If it's only sold 2 million since October that's a far cry from Oblivion's 2 million in a week.

» Sat May 28, 2011 5:52 am

Bethesda said they bought the Fallout franchise license so they could make more games with it. Bethesda owns not just Fallout '3', but also any other sequential Fallout title.

Indeed, and Fallout 3 obviously shows that Bethesda can enjoy quite some success with the Fallout franchise. And while there are no guarantees at this point, I'd say that unless Bethesda becomes another victim of the current economic troubles, which I suppose isn't entirely impossible, they will certainly want to take further advantage of the franchise they purchased.

And if Bethesda DID become bankrupt, the license would probably be claimed by EA or something, and at that point I think we can all agree it's not a good thing, but EA would certainly use typical EA business tactics to milk it dry.

» Sat May 28, 2011 1:06 am

And if Bethesda DID become bankrupt, the license would probably be claimed by EA or something, and at that point I think we can all agree it's not a good thing, but EA would certainly use typical EA business tactics to milk it dry.

EA would probably simply buy the entire company and get their hands on two cash-cow franchises. They already have BioWare, with Bethesda added they'd practically rule the entire RPG universe.

» Sat May 28, 2011 9:57 am

I doubt it.

In fact, I doubt there will be a Bethseda in 4 years.

1. Bethseda has two sister studios, Viral and Zenimax online. I've yet to see anything regarded as wildly successfull on Viral's site, and ZO is making an MMO. MMO's are incredibly expensive to make, usually fail, and often take the company with them. So basically, 3 studios are living on Bethseda's revenue.

2. Bethseda shipped 4.7 million units. According to NPD, and some math, Bethseda's barely sold half of that by January. Generally speaking, not selling your initial shipment by the time you're out of your major sales window is regarded as bad. Especially when you spent the marketing budget usually reserved for movies.

So basically, the most likely scenario at this point is this.

Zenimax feels the pinch from ZO and Viral burning through cash, starts to run low prior to TES V's release which will likely be 2010. Pushes Bethseda to release early, which leads to a lower quality product, which leads to lower sales, which continues the circle.

It's just math and history. NPD's numbers + the precedent set by other studios like 3do.

You can have all the awards in the world, but if your units sit on shelves, it doesn't matter.

Your argument is ridiculous. Zenimax, although private, so we don't know for sure, is one of the more successful gaming companies out there. Fallout 3 sold well beyond projections by all accounts, and Zemimax just partnered with an investment firm for an injection of several hundred million dollars. ZenimaxOnline appears fully funded and Vir2l has always been cash positive...is more than a handheld game developer, but also does all kinds of web media and advertising. Zeniumax was successful before they acquired Beth and they are even more successful now.

Bottom line is that there is no idnication that zenimax is in trouble, and lots of indication that they are doing well.

» Sat May 28, 2011 9:01 am

I believe Bethesda even stated that they wouldn't have bought the whole series if they planned on only making Fallout 3. so that gives us reasons to expect a couple to a few more Fallouts.