If the dragons are related to Akavir, maybe. Other than that, no.
I'd say you're right on that. While Skyrim may have dragons in it, unless those dragons are connected to Akavir, I doubt there will be a direct relationship between these events and the Nerevarine going to Akavir. After all, just because Akavir is named for dragons does not mean all dragons are related to Akavir, because this is not the case.
If it's been 200 years then... Would he or she even be alive? Hmm...
I think the first question we should ask is, has it actually been 200 years at all? And assuming it is, corprus would allow the Nerevarine to still be alive, assuming he did not die from other causes, seeing as corprus is supposed to make people immune to the effects of age, and the Nerevarine was not actually cured of corprus, just that the negative symptoms were removed, which would presumably mean the whole aging thing still remains. Of course, the Nerevarine could still die from violent causes, just as you can still kill corprus victims through weapons or magic, though I highly dout we'll see the Nerevarine in the game since that would mean defining a character for the Nerevarine, something Bethesda has always avoided for the protagonists of past games. We might hear rumors of the Nerevarine, or we might not, but I doubt we'll see him as an NPC in the game.