none of the daedra (excluding nocturnal and possibly sithis) have ever claimed the players soul
By being a werewolf, the player is claimed by Hircine too.
The general consensus seems to be whoever has the strongest claim gets you. But we really don't know how it all works, either... it used to be that Arkay would prevent a mortal's soul from being used in a way against the person's will, but the idea of a Daedric Prince (or the Ideal Masters) being able to take a mortal soul even if the person never agreed kinda goes against that.
Add to that the player's unique circumstance of being Dragonborn, having the soul of a dragon granted by Akatosh, puts another spin on it all, too.