My opinion is that since NV sold well and they're gonna need filler after the hype of both Skyrim and F4 dies down they would have Obsidian do another Fallout game. But then they might already know that Obsidian's not going to accept so they don't even want to try.
Why would they need a filler? There was a 5-year-gap between Oblivion and Skyrim, and Skyrim sells like it's the last action adventure on earth. They are also practically making one game over and over again with little tweaks. And it will likely not be too long until they'll announce FO4 to be in production and released about a year after the annoucement - and will most likely be to Skyrim what Fallout 3 was to Oblivion. It sells like hot cakes, every reviewer will praise it to heaves for some reason, and it will feel like copypaste [censored] to the original fanbase. But Beth fans will embrace it like a new messiah. One thing Bethesda does right is marketing and appealing to the masses, and keeping their
own developement schedule on control when it comes to building hype.
I don't think there are too many people here that would want Obsidian to make the next Fallout as much as me, but the unlikeliness of that to happen is far to great to be considered as a
real possibility (and this is something I'd really like to be wrong with).
Chris Avellone wrote that Bethesda was actually the most involved in marketing than any other publisher, so they're not totally [censored]. Also, Obsidian went indy, they're making PE which could probably make them rich seeing that they hype it quite well (probably Beth taught them a thing or two).
I know. But do you really think he'd - as a professional - say something bad about a potential employer and thus burn the bridges behind him? Also, name one game that Beth has published that has not had some fundamental issues? Even New Vegas and Dishonored got rushed and streamlined due to... publisher.