This is a brand new and updated timeline, including bits from the Merethic that I think we know and introducing the problems of the Dwemer and Falmer to the mix.
Skyrim is just a big explosion of dateless events and disordered chronologies. We need to fix it. I think in particular it is helpful to begin with The Holdings of Jarl Gjalund and The Aetherium Wars, since they are among the worst offenders. Well, the Dragon War aside. Oh, and the Falmer stuff. And lets not forget Ysgramor's dateless return. And...oh, hold on.
*ratchets screw deeper into skull*
Okay. Timeline shenanigans. Here we gooooooooooo!
----------------------------------Beginning of Timeline (for now)----------------
Circa Merethic 600 – Likely earliest possible date for Ysgramor's arrival on Tamriel according to Frontier and Conquest (Frontier, Conquest, and Accommodation)
Circa ME 600 – ME 1 Events recorded in the Songs of the Return take place (Songs of the Return)
Circa ME 600 – ME 1 Dragon War occurred during this period (There Be Dragons, The Dragon War)
Circa ME 600 – 1E 113 Period of the Twelve Legendary Kings
Circa ME 600 – 1E 113 Ysgramor's successors battle 'Aumriel' for decades near Hjalmarch. Aumriel is likely to have been a Falmer sorceress (Lost Legends of Skyrim, The Wispmother: Two Theories)
1E 1 First Era begins with the Camoran Dynasty founded by King Eplear of Valenwood
1E 113 – 221 High King Harald Hand-Free (founded Kingdom of Skyrim, defeated remnant dragon cultists at Lake Honnith, drama of Archmage Gauldur and sons, Archmage Geirmund of Windhelm) (Geirmund's Epitaph, Daynas Valen's Notes, Lost Legends of Skyrim, Skorm Snow-Strider's Journal)
1E 139 – 140 Assault on Dragon Cult stronghold Forelhost near Lake Honnith (Skorm Snow-Strider's Journal)
1. Circa post-1E 221 Dwemer discover Aetherium, an alliance between four cities is created to handle the material (The Aetherium Wars)
1E 221 – 222 High King Hjalmer
1E 222 – ??? High King Vrage the Gifted (takes part of Nibenay from Ayleids, most of High Rock from Direnni, Morrowind from Dwemer and Chimer)
1. Holdings of Jarl Gjalund is written during the reign of King Vrage.
1E 243 Alessian Rebellion against Ayleids
1. High King Gellir reigns and conquers Dwemer
1E 361 Alessians gained control of the Empire (Last King of the Ayleids)
1E ??? – 369 High King Borgas of Winterhold (failure of Moot to elect Jarl Hanse of Winterhold results in War of Succession)
1E 369 – 420 Skyrim is without a High King (Nords lose holdings in Morrowind, High Rock, and Cyrodiil)
1. Dwemer take back lost cities
1E 416 Nords driven from Morrowind
1E 420 – Rourken Clan in self-imposed exile from Resdayn (PGE1). Rourken splinter groups arrive and settle in Skyrim (Dwemer Inquiries Vol 1).
Circa 420 – Life of Archmage Shalidor (Battle of Rourken-Shalidor, College of Winterhold founded, Labyrinthian established as testing ground) (Tamrielic Lore, A Minor Maze)
1E 420 – 452 High King Olaf reunites Skyrim and conquers the Reach
2. Holdings of Jarl Gjalund is written during or just after Olaf's reign as High King.
1E ??? – 478/479 High King Kjoric the White
1E 478/479 – 482 High King Hoag Merkiller (Battle of Glenumbria Moors where Direnni/Nord alliance defeats Alessians)
1E 482 Battle of Glenumbria Moors (Last King of the Ayleids)
1E 480/482 – 533 High King Ysmir Wulfharth (defeated the Direeni, purges Alessian heresy, reinstates traditional pantheon)
2. The events of the Aetherium Wars, and King Gellir's reign, take place here instead.
1E 700 Dwemer disappear and the War of the Crag ends. Wulfharth supposedly plays a part.
------------------------------------End of Timeline (for now)-------------------------
The Holdings of Jarl Gjalund
1. Arguments for this placement reliy on:
i: The antiquitated style of the piece suggests it lies not far from the Merethic.
ii: Hroldan is stated to have been recently acquired from the Reachmen. May refer to High King Vrage's conquests.
iii: Bromjunaar is a much reduced but still inhabited settlement.
1. Arguments against the placement include:
i: Who are the new gods the scribe is sworn to? Neither the Alessian Deity nor the Nine Divines are established pantheons yet (Supposedly, anyway. See REMAINING PROBLEMS section).
ii: Whiterun is known as AHROLSEDOVAH, or Hill of Dragons, a possible reference to Dragonsreach, which only gained its name during King Olaf's tenure.
2.Arguments for this placement rely on:
i: Hroldan is stated to have been recently acquired from the Reachmen, perhaps refering to High King Olaf's conquest of the Reach.
ii: Whiterun is known as AHROLSEDOVAH, or Hill of Dragons, a possible reference to Dragonsreach, a name it acquired after Olaf imprisoned the dragon Numinex there.
iii: The scribe swears loyalty to both the "Old Gods and the New". During Olaf's reign, the Nine Divines have already been established for some time. Also, we know the Alessian Order has a religous presence in Skyrim during this time. The "New" may refer to either of these pantheons.
2.Arguments against this placement rely on:
i: According to the document, Bromjunaar is a still inhabited place. Knowing that Archmage Shalidor lived during this same period, there is no mention of Labyrinthian. Likewise, placing this document here contradicts A Minor Maze, which claims that Bromjunaar laid abandoned for many years before Shalidor requisitioned it for his own use.
The Aetherium Wars
1. Arguments for this placement rely on:
i: This book itself places the discovery of Aetherium in the years following Herald's reign, and that the alliance quickly shattered, resulting in several decades of war, followed in turn by Gellir's conquests. This timeline fits nicely into the gap between Vrage's and Borgas' respective reigns, where we place King Gellir. The Dwemer recovery of their strongholds also fits very nicely into the period of Nordic decline that was the War of Succession. The takeback of strongholds by the Dwemer also coincides neatly with the arrival of the Rourken, an idea that carries with it that the Dwemer of Skyrim did not arrive with them, but merely received help from them to reclaim their lands.
1. Arguments against this placement rely on:
i: The idea that Dwemer inhabit Skyrim during this period is directly contradicted by Dwemer Inquiries Vol 1 series of books, which suggest that the Dwemer only arrive in Skyrim as groups that splintered from Rourken's Clan.
2. Arguments for this placement rely on:
i: There is no other place to put King Gellir's reign, as the Dwemer disappear in 1E 700.
ii: The Dwemer most definitely are present in Skyrim by this period, as it follows the Rourken exodus and their great conflict with Shalidor. The Aetherium Wars also claims that the Dwemer strongholds in Skyrim had "held fast against the Nords for over a hundred years," a statment which works well with the 420 arrival date and the opening up of the High Kingship after Wulfharth's reign ended in 533.
2. Arguments against this placement rely on:
i: Discredits the book's own suggestion of a timeline closely following Vrage's reign.
-----------------------------------Remaining Problems-------------------------
I: The Proleptical Eight Divines
One of the most discouraging things of all this is the following reference in our earliest dated material, Skorm Snow-Strider's Journal: "It seems he will be joining the Eight in Sovngarde soon," and "May the Eight protect us from Dragons and madmen."
I don't really need to explain the significance of this. What we can do is possibly explain this away as not a reference to Alessia's pantheon, but rather a reference to the Nord's own pantheon, minus the Dragon, whom was probably removed come the finale of the Dragon War. Regardless, it remains a problem to be dealt with.
II: Dwemer Here, Dwemer There
One of the great contradictions here is the question of how long the Dwemer have inhabited Skyirm. The only texts we can put anywhere near a timeline contradict one another. Dwemer Inquiries Vol 1 suggests that the Dwemer only arrived in Skyrim with the Rourken Clan's appearance in the region (1E 420), while The Aetherium Wars implies they've been around since at least Harald's reign. The thing is, Dwemer are absent from most of Nordic lore (save Shalidor) and the Falmer texts we have refering to them are undateable.
III: Placing the Falmer
Everything we know about the Falmer, save Skorm Snow-Strider's Journal and the dialogue of Knight Paladin Gelebor, is absolutely undatable. Despite this, we can fairly confidently place most important texts and events solidly in the First Era. For example, we know from Gelebor that the shrine to Auriel that we visit in Dawnguard was built in the early First Era. Gelebor and the texts also suggest that the Snow Prince fell while the shrine was in operation. We can also the identify the blinding of the Falmer to after this period, given what the texts report. This perhaps happened in Gelebor's own lifetime, given the way he talks about it, but we can't be sure.
Ultimately, any greater understanding of where these events fall on the timeline would come with a greater understanding of where the Dwemer do. If the Dwemer only first arrived in the region in 420 of the First Era, then we can solidly place the blinding of the Falmer to sometime after 420 yet (of course) well before 700. If not, then much of the First Era is open for game. Snow-Strider's journal, however, would suggest that Falmer groups still controlled the southern regions of Skyrim during Herald's reign, so both the blinding and the Battle of Moestring would have likely occured after or during Harald's reign.
-----------------------------------In Conclusion-----------------------------
I'm anxiously waiting for Dragonborn to see if we get any new dating information.
Also, Beth, as a little hint from me to you, it'd be nice if you gave us more dates every once in a while.