For the sake of not going off topic, lets' ignore all the political stuff and focus on the nature of the question which is military.


If the stormcloaks win the civil war how do they propose standing a chance against the Thalmor? The Empire, which included Skyrim, tried and lost pretty badly. So how is Skyrim supposed to achieve victory over them if it succeeds? You can shout rhetoric and bravado all day, but at the end of it all, it's still a fraction of the force that lost 30 years ago.

plus if they thalmor show up on skyrims door step,the stormcloaks have a home field advantage of knowing the landscape, not to mention the peoples trust.

Stormcloaks are more about throwing the Thalmor out of Skyrim, which isn't a difficult thing to do.
Skyrim is far away and the Dominion won't be able to get in a second time.

Thalmor couldn't even beat Hammerfell so Skyrim should be likewise impregnable.

plus if they thalmor show up on skyrims door step,the stormcloaks have a home field advantage of knowing the landscape, not to mention the peoples trust.

Not everyone "trusts" the Stormcloaks. Half the province doesn't want them.

Half of the nobles doesn't want them. Most people seem largely disinterested in who is in charge, with some exceptions.

Stormcloaks are more about throwing the Thalmor out of Skyrim, which isn't a difficult thing to do.
Skyrim is far away and the Dominion won't be able to get in a second time.

Thalmor couldn't even beat Hammerfell so Skyrim should be likewise impregnable.

The nobles play a larger role than most think when rebellions concerned, with most rebellions requiring the power of the nobles and their thoughts.

plus if they thalmor show up on skyrims door step,the stormcloaks have a home field advantage of knowing the landscape, not to mention the peoples trust.

Only about 40% of the population that got involed supported them, and the Empire had home-field advantage and still lost hard. The Stormcloaks would be massively outnumbered, alone, and wounded from the civil war. Besides, Galmar said he was going on the offensive and invading the Summerset Isles.

Ulfric's word triumphs Galmar's, and he says the first priority is to rebuild Skyrim to be able to stand alone.

Yeah, Galmar is the kind of a guy who speaks before he thinks... Ulfric doesn't seem interested in crossing the border to invade Elven lands.

Half of the nobles doesn't want them. Most people seem largely disinterested in who is in charge, with some exceptions.

And they are exiled, left without power. Replaced by those who are in favor of the Stormcloak cause. By the end of the civil war, regardless of which side wins, the nobility will be fairly united.

Stormcloaks are more about throwing the Thalmor out of Skyrim, which isn't a difficult thing to do.
Skyrim is far away and the Dominion won't be able to get in a second time.

Thalmor couldn't even beat Hammerfell so Skyrim should be likewise impregnable.

Only about 40% of the population that got involed supported them, and the Empire had home-field advantage and still lost hard. The Stormcloaks would be massively outnumbered, alone, and wounded from the civil war. Besides, Galmar said he was going on the offensive and invading the Summerset Isles.

The “Skyrim cannot survive alone”-argument

This one is one of the simpler arguments to debunk, because any high school dropout can look at the map and see how silly this argument is. Here. http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://cloud-2.steampowered.com/ugc/918987149705159097/C22C10AE7A645DE484D4521251914E3138836D83/&imgrefurl=http://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id%3D91249786&h=1202&w=1861&sz=93&tbnid=nBGo07R-Omi71M:&tbnh=90&tbnw=139&zoom=1&usg=__7BIkCEpKVKwWqHJ0jtswf0XmBMU=&docid=Tpko8a8T0KYY3M&sa=X&ei=l3tIUd2vEIyy8AT6zYGwCQ&ved=0CDUQ9QEwAA&dur=1510

Lets look at the two ways a military force can invade a territory. The first possibility is by Land. If the Thalmor were to attempt this, they'd need to go through either Morrowind (not allies of the Thalmor, and never have been, plus Argonians occupy part of it and are fighting the Dark Elves) or Hammerfell (obviously hostile to the Dominion) or through Cyrodiil. Now many say that there's the solution. The Thalmor have a treaty with the Empire, and they are allowed through Cyrodiil and Skyrim. Two things. One, the Justiciars are allowed, and two, whole armies are clearly not. How do I know this? Tullius himself says at the Empire is currently guarding it's border to watch for an attack from the Dominion. Think about that for a sec. If the Thalmor were allowed to walts in whenever they wanted, why the hell is the Empire wasting their time guarding their borders? It makes no sense. Clearly the deal of the Thalmor in their territory extends solely to Justiciars for hunting down "heretics" not their whole army.

Now look at Skyrim's natural barriers. Mountains. The worst kind. You cannot sustain an flow of troops and supplies through a mountain range. Not easily anyway. Couple that with the intense weather, and you have a complete supply chain disaster. Now, the Thalmor, assuming they actually did get through Cyrodiil in whatever fashion still would have trouble getting through even if they used the Pale Pass, due to it's treacherous reputation. Here's an example of how it caused trouble for Tullius during the Stormcloak rebellion:

^{http://www.uesp.net/wiki/Lore:Pale_Pass#cite_note-4} In http://www.uesp.net/wiki/Lore:Fourth_Era#4E_201, the Pale Pass was closed due to avalanches, preventing Imperial reinforcements from helping to secure Falkreath Hold under Imperial control during the http://www.uesp.net/wiki/Lore:Stormcloak_Rebellion.^{http://www.uesp.net/wiki/Lore:Pale_Pass#cite_note-5http://www.uesp.net/wiki/Lore:Pale_Pass#cite_note-6}

In short, a land invasion is highly unlikely in the current situation. I didn't even talk about the obvious disadvantage of fighting in a cold climate that the Thalmor are not at all used to fighting in (their homeland is SUMMERSET ISLE for Talos's sake) against a people who are literally magically resistant to cold weather and magic.

Now lets look at what the Thalmor are actually good at. Naval invasion. The Thalmor are known to have the most advanced and powerful naval force in Tamriel. But even the most advanced naval ships cannot successfully invade without a safe port nearby to house reinforcements and supplies to sustain the attack. See how far away Summerset Isle is? It would be comically impractical to invade Skyrim from this far away, whether that be by land or sea. Even our real life history proves this fact to be true. The Thalmor can't set one on the coast of Skyrim to the North because one, they'd be under constant attack, and two, the Sea of Ghosts is as the name suggests extremely treacherous. They don't have any islands nearby to do this either. The only possibility they have is to anger the Dark Elves as well, and take one of those islands that are literally on the opposite side of Tamriel from Summerset Isle. Then they'd be fighting two nearby nations at the same time, and this time one of them is magically adept, and are as tough as the Nords are. So without a true safe port, this invasion tactic is even more unlikely to succeed.

This is why I personally laugh at those who say "without the Empire in Skyrim, the Stormcloaks are doomed." The Nords could literally sit back and gulp down some Black-Briar mead while the land does the fighting for them.

Hammerfell and Skyrim should have a good relationship. Im sure Morrowind wouldnt be to keen on the Thalmor gaining ground in the North either.

I still find the whole "take the fight to the thalmor" thing hilarious. Like either side, following the Civil War would be in any state in Sk...
...Eh, the Empire is probably more prepared since they have larger numbers OUTSIDE of Skyrim and wold recover war losses far quicker after the Skyrim Campaign, whereas the Stormcloaks would either need to rebuild their forces and resources...or Leroy Jenkins it.