In lieu of hindsight bias. Yes, they could have bluffed it.
We don't know. What we do know is that after the Redguards did hang on, it seems likely, since they would have the support of the Nords and Bretons.
I'd say so. The Dominion were in pretty bad shape as well.
For all we know the Redguard's had a HoonDing helping them out. But in hindsight, perhaps they could have. I'd wager that it was close enough that the terms of the WGC didn't have to be so largely in favour of the Dominion, that's for sure.
I believe Mede's decision was ill advised yes and I'll leave it at that. The book "The Great War" appears to suggest it.
And what motivation would there be to surrender though it was possible to fight on and win?
Ulfric accuses Mede of selling Skyrim out in order to keep his throne, but that would've been all the more reason for the emperor to aim for victory, wouldn't it?
Especially if it still could be reached as some believe.
Like I said, they probably got punked. Scared into thinking somehow their sources were wrong. Or the council was just tired of war. That or maybe the Thalmor got to the council.
maybe, maybe not.. we may never know...
the WGC was always described as a peace treaty, but we only hear of what the empire had to give up, not what the Dominion had to give up....
So I assume the Dominion lost "something" as well (gold maybe?), we just haven't heard about it..
Because, if only the empire had to give stuff up (Talos Worship, southern Hammerfell, etc.), then its not really a peace treaty is it? its more of a "terms of surrender"
The bigger question is why did Mede still continue holding onto the WGC once the Redguards kicked the Thalmor's secondary force out of Hammerfell in 180.
Exactly That's my main problem with it. A clue that the Thalmor were bluffing was the fact that they called it a treaty. Although I guess that they also could have simply called it that to make the terms easier to swallow. Meh, who knows.
Probably assumed that they had another army somewhere else or something. Not a clue. I guess the Thalmor could have figured giving more resources for that war was pointless as they separated it from the Empire already. But they also managed to do the dumbest thing you can do to an enemy. Stop their internal wars and unite them.
Well the dumbest thing the Dominion did in Hammerfell was led it's army through the Alikr desert.
its possible the Legion had yet to fully recovered from the Great War..
if the Legion is "capable" of losing the Skyrim Civil War (I say capable as we do not know who the canon winner will be, lets just hope its not another Dragon Break), then it obviously has not returned to its full fighting Strength, and would be slaughtered if they decided to take on the Thalmor again...
didn't Mede sign the WGC to give the legion time to recover after the Battle of the Red Ring?
26 years and still no progress and from what we've seen the Legion might have deteriorated even further. Had the Imperials not given in it might have ended up as a war of attrition against the Thalmor, then again it seems that the upcoming great war would become one anyways. The thing is the Redguards defeated the last of the Dominion troops. If the Empire suddenly decided to throw off the WGC I don't think the Thalmor could instantly send another invasion force into the mainland while still recovering from a two disastrous beatings.
Bleh, we cant know for sure. all we know is the written lore. but no i dont think so. the empire wouldnt have signed the treaty if they knew their forces were capable of holding longer.
but the Legion was decimated after the Battle of the Red Ring..
26 years may be a while to average Citizens, but it is not alot of time to rebuild an Army.. Especially after how low morale would be in both surviving forces and new recruits after what was basically a loss/surrender..
The Empire could have invoked a draft I suppose, but Soldiers who spent their lives as Shop Keeps or Bartenders don't make the most effective troops... if they were going to do that they might as well give all draftees the rank "canon fodder"... not to mention the second the Dominions spies heard the Empire had invoked a Draft, I guarantee you the Dominion would put two and two together and notice "looks like they are preparing for war, ready the fleet Billy!"
to take on the Thalmor, they would need a large number of experienced troops... they may have begun finally getting some of their forces and military assets back, but the Skyrim CW basically weakened what assets the Legion had regained...
In a way I agree with you about how hard it is to replenish fallen legionaries considering Cyrodill and Skyrim's citizens multitude of professions given the peace they mostly had throughout the 3rd and 4th era vs Hammerfell which which had known never-ending war even before the Redguards landed in Tamriel and who's citizens virtually all have jobs pertaining to war or some kind of danger. The thing by 180 the Thalmor has just been as battered as the legions in terms of an expeditionary force meaning they can't afford to launch another invasion that quickly and as mentioned before Elves reproduce much slower than humans. The elves also have no problems biding their time because as you said 26 years to us is is a few years for them, so why would it be necessary to invade so soon and possibly botch it. Had the Empire been smarter they would've also improved relationships with Morrowind and Black Marsh in hopes of gaining more alliances instead of holding onto the WGC thereby pissing off the only province left that gives them strong warriors.
I'm actually one of the few people who wouldn't underestimate the Dominion knowing how cunning the Thalmor are, and as a Stormcloak supporter I am willing to overlook the Empire signing onto the WGC initially. It's the fact that they continue to hold onto it when a single province kick out the Thalmor's remaining forces 5 years later (it does sound like Arannelya is was a better commander than Naarifin too) that I think is stupid.
I believe one of the reasons Hammerfell was able to repel the Dominion though is the environment, not simply the Redguards skill.. the Alik'r desert for example..
The Thalmor may not have pulled out of Hammerfell because of simply troop loss, but possibly because their tacticians realized "our troops aren't prepared for such a Climate. continuing would not be within our best interest".
I think of World War II. Germany Invaded Russia and Germany began losing forces not because of the Russian Military's skill (although that was a factor), but because of the environment. Germans were not prepared for such a cold, harsh climate, so their forces were pushed back and had to eventually retreat from the eastern front.. actually, in WWII many tacticians said the only forces that would be able to successfully invade Russia would be the Canadians, as our Climates were so similar...
So, the reason the Thalmor were pushed out of Hammerfell may be in large part due to the environment. meaning they would still retain an advantage in any warfare with a more forgiving climate.
Of course they did march through the Alikr desert with intention of taking Sentinel (Why else would you go through the inhospitable Alikr?) Sentinel being one of the most powerful and wealthiest cities on Tamriel as well the capital of Hammerfell would give the Dominion a huge advantage should they capture it. In TES II it's said the area surrounding Sentinel is also inhospitable too. I'm still amazed at how the Redguards managed to build such a magnificent city in one of the harshest places on Tamriel. So for the Thalmor the risks of failure to take it are extremely high even compared with the advantages (which include an easy naval access to High Rock) Luckily they did fail and as a result suffered massive casualities from the Alikr warriors and some aid from the discharged legionaries.
However most of the important areas the Dominion held were coastal cities (Hegathe being the exception) which weren't as harsh and the Thalmor were well fortified there so I doubt Environment played as much a factor as you are suggesting .
Having visited Northern Canada (Nunavut) before as well Alaska I don't exactly think it's comparable to Russia( at least when I visited Russia), though it's still freezing cold nonetheless.