This isn't a "Which one is better" or a "Stormcloak VS Empire" or "Ulfric VS Tullius" thread. But I can it being similar to such threads.

I want to have a calm and reasonable debate about the possibility of a war between the free people of Skyrim and the Aldmeri Dominion. And by that I mean realistic and intelligent points and arguments about why you think what you think.

Now we'll assume that Titus Mede II has been assassinated by the Dark Brotherhood, the Dominion knows this, so the Elder Council recalls Tullius and his men to Cyrodiil, and Ulfric is given free reign over Skyrim.

Personally I find it completely out of the question. Geographically speaking. Skyrim is far north while Alinor is far south. The only way to get there is:

A) By ship, sailing around Highrock and Hammerfell, or

Through Cyrodiil and Valenwood

And because of that I find it highly unlikely. It's as if Ancient China tried to invade Ancient Britain; it's just not reasonable nor is it worth it.

But let's assume they did get into a war, and somehow or another they managed to face one another. Who would win, or who has a better chance of winning? First let me debunk, or attempt to debunk some things.

1. In TES V: Skyrim, Thalmor beat Stormcloak NPC's...

First off I don't think we can go on that; I don't we should base Lore-related issues with in-game stats. Besides, I honestly doubt Skyrim's army is equipped with Stormcloak Cuirass', fur gauntlets/boots, and iron weapons. I am sure they would have steel armor and weapons, possibly some Stahlrim (?). I think Skyrim actually marks the first time Nords got a bonus to Light Armor whereas in the past they was associated with Heavy Armor. So get that out of your heads (unless you can make a reasonable argument about it).

2. If the Stormcloaks can't defeat the Empire, what makes you think they can defeat the Thalmor?

We don't know this. Remember, the Thalmor were pulling the strings in this conflict. For all we know the Stormcloaks may have crushed Tullius and his men, or vice versa, so I don't see this as a reasonable argument. Since the Thalmor were pulling the strings of the war, we can't know for sure.

3. Stormcloaks are a rebellion, not an army.

Assuming Skyrim was a free nation, I am sure more Nords in the land would join the new Skyrim nation. A lot of Nords are not necessarily Stormcloak-sympathizers, but they might be Skyrim-sympathizers. We don't know anythign for sure, so I don't this as a valid argument.

So now let's talk about some things.

The Nords of Skyrim have managed to push into Morrowind, Cyrodiil, and Highrock in the past, and fought Dunmer, Falmer, Breton, Imperials, and probably many more races (consider the Interregnum for example, where they practically fought the Dominion before) so their military capabilities are surely evident.

Next think about Ulfric. Sure, he's a puppet, but he knows how to lead. Ulfric is a capable and battle-tested veteran and he can use the Voice, so I'm pretty sure he'd manage well against the Thalmor - and don't forget he's fought them before.

So how good are the Nords? Well during the Battle of Red Ring:

Source: http://elderscrolls.wikia.com/wiki/Battle_of_the_Red_Ring

So a garrison of mostly Nords held their own against the Thalmor - a garrison from Bravil and Skingrad.

So that's it for me right now. I personally don't see a war ever happening, but if so that's what I think.

I see it as something similar to Ancient Athens(Whale) vs. Ancient Sparta(Elephant).

Aldmeri foot-soldiers would likely get crushed by Nordic soldiers. Meanwhile, a Nordic navy would get obliterated by the Aldmeri navy.

In other words. Summerset cannot invade Skyrim. Skyrim cannot invade Summerset.

True, I suppose.

Damn. I wanted to make a similar thread regarding the Great War, WGC, and the future. Now there are at least 4 related threads. Should I still go with mine?

Two things...

It's likely the Stormcloaks have those cuirasses as their main armor. They do not have access to Stalhrim as it is only found on Solstheim and its forging is known only by the Skaal.

And yes, the Legion basically won by the beginning of the game. It is only because of Alduin and the Dragonborn (should he/she go SC) does the CW continue. The Thalmor don't want either side to win. It's possible that the indirect aid the Thalmor give the Stormcloaks involves Imperial positons, weapon caches, and other things. Elenwen was there at Helgen to attempt to free Ulfric through some means. That's why Tullius didn't continue to the Imperial City as it is likely that the Thalmor would have attemped to free Ulfric then.

There's no scenario where Skyrim by itself can invade Alinor and win. That is not even what Ulfric envisions- he says the Nords will lead all Tamriel against the Dominion. Big talk for the Nords will spearhead an alliance of nations to go against the Thalmor. Whether that succeeds or not depends on a lot of factors. We don't know who's going to be running the farm in Cyrodiil after this. If anti-Thalmor hawks take over, they may very well be favorable to an alliance with Skyrim. All the Stormcloaks want is that Nord sovereignty is respected and that they no longer be forced to submit to the WGC.

If the Dominion were to invade Skyrim, they would likely meet the fate of most big empires who take on an entrenched insurgency in hostile terrain with no local support far from their home base and any supply line. They would do a lot of damage and ultimately fail.

I feel like Ulfric will canonically win the war, ally with Hammerfell and the Empire and then drive into Valenwood and Elsweyr and ultimately win the war, but Alinor will remain it's own state.

I'm not exactly clear as to what the Bosmer or Khajiit think of all this.

I just don't ever see a Thalmor victory.

Given Bethesda's track record of invoking catastrophe after the past games, and allowing all player lead faction quests to be somewhat canonical, I'd say it's more likely a disaster befalls the empire that renders the ultimate outcome of the civil war irrelevant. The second great war, another Thalmor invasion of the mainland., would be the likely culprit. I'd say it's far more likely that the Thalmor would invade first before any likely coalition of the Imperial remnants, SCs or any other faction could overcome their differences and get organized. They're clearly planning for another invasion, and actively working to destabilize the major powers on the mainland to soften them up, and would certainly not sit idle while either the Empire or a recently independent Skyrim are working to regain their strength. They'd strike while the enemy is still disorganized and at their most vulnerable.