Speaking specifically for this province, the initially question one must ask is how likely the country is going to remain a independent state, let alone the seat of an Empire. What are your thoughts?

My own thoughts are that Cyrodiil without the Empire is no Cyrodiil at all. In the Great war, without the Legions of Skyrim and High Rock the province, barring the extreme north, would of likely of remained indefinably in dominion control. It was only the Imperial states that saved Cyrodiil.

Yet we now know the situation with the Empire, and even unity amongst the human states, hangs by a pretty thin thread. Without the other states backing, a realistic look on how long this country can remain independent is, in my opinion, grim. The dominion would consider the capture of white - gold tower and the rich, sparsely populated lands of Cyrodill a Pivotal victory, and it would secure it as the number one power in Tamriel. Against the dominion, and with no backing, could Cyrodill really brave it alone? Could it defend itself? And how long for?

With Skyrim pulled out of the so - called "Empire" its my guess the Thalmor would invade within the decade, bringing with them an almighty war machine. With no support southern Cyrodiil would quickly be ravaged. I imagine another bloody battle would be fought to retain the Imperial City, which would inevitably fall into Thalmor hands. The Mede dynasty might be able to retreat to the extreme north and rally a guerrilla fight. However, the new "Non - Domnion" Cyrodill (Probably known as "North Cyrodiil") would be a minuscule Kingdom, one which would likely collapse soon after anyway.

Alternately, the mede dynasty might quickly cut there losses and retreat to the heartland region. Trans - Niben would be ceded to Black Marsh (In the hope that conflict would develop between Elsweyr and Black Marsh) and the Gold coast/colovia area would either be abandoned, or, more likely, ceded to Hammerfell (Ideal) or Valenwood (Not great but might pacify the Dominion for another decade or two)

After this City Isle would be massively reinforced, with new defences installed on Tiber Bridge and on the walls, turning the City into a fortress - state. The remaining parts of "New Cyrodill" would comprise of County Cheydinhal, Chorrol, and Bruma. It would be roughly 45% - 50% the original size of the state.

Inevitably, this state would be weaker, and a Thalmor invasion would still be likely, but now an invasion would be extremely difficult, since breaching City isle via the NIben (Now controlled by Black Marsh) would be likely an impossibility, but a mainland assault would result in such substantial casualties it would be deemed unsustain able. Fighting in the harsh cold of Country Bruma would be unsuited to Dominion soldiers and even if Bruma was captured soldiers could fight a determined guerrilla war in the Jeralls. Similar results could be repeated in the Valus mountains.

Defended by Mountains, the threat from Skyrim/Morrowind would be reduced.

In the event of the mainland being captured, a last - ditch fight could be meted out on City Isle, with the Talos Bridge collapsed and food being grown on the island, resulting in a prolonged and bloody siege which the Mede dynasty would hope would result in a new, Island - state which would be virtually Impossible to defeat.

~~~

In my estimation, if Skyrim remains within the Empire, Cyrodiil will at least partially survive. In likelihood a second great war would be so bloody, and with the Empire having lost too many men in the civil war that parts of Cyrodiil (Trans - niben, southern areas) would either be lost or ceded to preserve the nation as a whole. This new nation would be easier to defend because the dominion could only attack on a shorter front/proximity to Skyrim

Without the Empire, my estimation is the country (Present state) would survive 10 - 25 years, with Skyrim more like 25 - 50 years.

I could be wrong, so what are your thoughts on this?