» Mon Dec 09, 2013 5:33 am Talking specifically about Elven birth rates - The general information picked up in - game is they have a lower fertility/ generally have only one or two children.
I was thinking about this recently, and realised an important fact - That the "population" dynamics of, say, the altmer population will not correlate with any real - life chart because Altmer live over a prolonged lifespan. This means that even if a small number of Altmer had one child the population would still grow very marginally. However this would eventually have a "buffering" affect as a generation would die within a short space of time, slowing down or even reversing growth.
The basic model of population is the idea of the "replacement level" - a minimum of 2.1 children per mating pair of any species. Basically, if a species has below this average there population will shrink. Eventually leading to extinction. The Altmer birth pattern does not make much logical sense. Because the population will go into a sort of prolonged extinction - with numbers gradually diminishing over many centuries. It is very notable to also say any figures do not include any other cause of death beyond natural death. The population would of already of been extinct by now by my reckoning.
This is not the only thing however, the problem is the rate of human growth - presuming each human mating pair has 4 children reach to advlthood. The growth, as a calculated, was enormous, with humans outpacing Altmer on a vast scale within a few centuries. The model I devised was based according to each Altmer living an average of 400 years, with an average of one child per breeding pair. For humans, over a century there will be three primary breeding "tiers" - 4, 8 and then a maximum of x12 to human population. I then sliced this down (Infant morality etc.) down to a five fold increase.
I decided to base the model on the first ten centuries of the 1st era - Mainly because we could "star from the beginning". I have tried to accurately incorporate events that may of significantly affected population rates. I based it on two races - Imperials and Altmer. I realise there will inaccuracies, but I am only going on the information provided. I have made some meticulous research into the subject so please respect my efforts. I do this to try and sum up whether or not such birth rats, even in the wide context, mean elven races can realistic claim overlordship of humans or even be able to survive as a species.
STAGE ONE - 1E 0 - 100
The beginning stage, I found little event to note. At this time Imperials are still in slavery to the Ayelid empire who I presume have kept their population number regulated. For this reason what might be seen as "Natural" growth is not seen.
Altmer Population: 100,000 (50,000 breeding pairs) an increase of 50,000 population to [150,000]
Imperial Population: 50,000 (25,000 breeding pairs) a marginal increase of 10,000 (due to strict regulation) to [60,000]
STAGE TWO - 1E 101 - 200
Again, little of significant note for this century. Human are still enslaved with presumed strict regulation
Altmer Population: 150,000 (75,000 breeding pairs) to an steady increase of around 75,000 to [225,000]
Imperial Population: 60,000 (30,000 breeding pairs) a small increase of 15,000 to [75,000]
STAGE THREE - 1E 201 - 300
A very significant stage, the Imperial population break free of Aylelid occupation around 1/3 of the way through of this century. Numbers are no longer regulated. For this purpose, due to lateness and death from the war, population growth of Imperials is smaller than the natural rate whilst the Altmer rate continues to grow steadily.
Altmer population: 225,000 (Around 110,000 breeding pairs) to a significant increase of 110,000 to [335,000] - Now have passed the 1/4 million mark and are on their way to there first half million
Imperial Population: 75,000 (Around) 35,000 breeding pairs, due to only having two full seasons of fertility population growth is smaller. The population increases by x4 (35,000 x 4: 140,000) leading to a new population of [215,000]
STAGE FOUR - 1E 301 - 400
Stage three saw the first marked human increase in population - already within less than a century they are fast catching up with the Altmer population. This continues into the next century...
Altmer Population: 335,000 (165,000 breeding pairs) leading to a significant increase to [500,000] - Altmer have now reached their first half - million. However it has taken 400 years to achieve this....
Imperial Population: 215,000 (105,000 breeding pairs) (105 x5: 525,000) leading to a healthy increase to [525,000] - Imperials have now overtaken Altmer, albeit only by a small margin, in terms of population.
STAGE FIVE - 1E 401 - 500
This stage is significant for both Imperials and Altmer populations. The first *Buffering* Impact hits the Altmer population hard, slicing off a large part of there numbers. From now on this affect will continue to plague the population. Meanwhile a plague sweeps the Imperial population, as well as warfare between some of the Colovian estates.
Altmer Population: 400,000 (Down by 100,000 from stage one generation now deceased) (200,000 breeding pairs) leading to an impressive recovery up to [600,000] however growth is lower than expected
Imperial Population: 210,000 (Around 60% taken off due to war/plague) (105,000 breeding pairs) (105,000 x 5) leading to an total of [525,000]
STAGE SIX - 1E 501 - 600
Stage five saw the Imperial population stagnate at the flat rate of 520,000, but even the loss of 60% of their population has had no lasting impact on their numbers. The Altmer population briefly overtook them again, but this is a brief and non - sustainable interlude...
Altmer population: 550,000 (buffer loss) (275,000 breeding pairs) an increase to [825,000] - they have now passed the 3/4 mark on their way to their first million
Imperial Population: 525,000 (260,000 breeding pairs) (260,000 x 5) leading to an enormous increase to [1.3 million] - Imperials have now achieved their first million and are now outstripping Altmer by a large margin for the first time.
STAGE SEVEN 1E 601 - 700
Stage seven is singficant, after the severe buffering smaller "ripples" (albeit now increasing) have allowed the Altmer population to grow substantially - they have now passed the million mark. Humans, however, are still far out pacing them, although growth remains reasonably steady.
Altmer population: 750,000 (375,000 breeding pairs) leading to an increase to [1,250,000] - Altmer have now surpassed their first million
Imperial Population: 1.3 million (650,000 breeding pairs) (650,000 x 5) leading to a large increase to [3.25 million]
STAGE EIGHT 1E 701 - 800
In this stage we enter "late development" - for the first time, there are over a million imperial breeding pairs. This has led to a very substantial rise in population, now fast approaching ten million. Rocked by stagnating buffering, the Altmer population has struggled to maintain significant growth but nevertheless is now looking to reach the two million mark.
Altmer population: 1,140,000 (Around 550,000 breeding pairs) leading to a impressive growth to [1,690,000]
Imperial Population: 3,250,000 (1,625,000 breeding pairs) (1,625,000 x 5) leading to impressive growth to [8,125,000]
STAGE NINE
In this stage, despite increasingly high buffering, the Altmer population continues to a grow at a very steadily increasing rate. The population has now surpassed two million. By Imperial standards, however, this is nothing, the population has exploded, going from eight to a staggering twenty million within just one century. By now their are around eighteen Imperials for every Altmer.
Altmer population: 1,525,000 (760,000 breeding pairs) leading to a steadily increasing growth to [2,285,000]
Imperial population: 8,125,000 (4,060,000 breeding pairs) (4,060,000 x5) leading to a population boom to [20,300,000]
STAGE TEN
The final stage, within this last stage the Imperial population simply explodes (again) to over fifty million citizens. The Altmer population also grows impressively to over three million within just one century. And, for the first time, they have over one million breeding pairs (Whilst Imperials have ten million breeding pairs)
Altmer population: 2,085,000 (1,040,000 breeding pairs) leading to an impressive growth to [3,125,000]
Imperial population: 20,300,000 (10,150,000 breeding pairs) (10,150,000 x 5) leading to an truly staggering growth to [50,750,000]
FINAL RESULTS
ALTMER: 3,125,000
IMPERIAL: 50,750,000
CONCLUSION
Despite my doubts, I now confess that my own findings on the matter have proven me incorrect. Due to prolonged lifespan the normal rules do not apply and, even if every pair had just one child the population will continue to growth. Buffering steadily continued throughout the later stages, however overall this was not enough to prevent some growth. In the final stage the Altmer achieved their first substantial growth, jumping between million figures. Humans, meanwhile, have exploded by Stage nine. Within the next century they will have grown massively again. Ultimately, Altmer growth is vastly outpaced by Human growth. Initially growth in both races remained minor. The Altmer largely maintained growth whilst humans uncertainly grew and shrunk. Because of this it was not until late development their population underwent its boom. My own feelings on this matter have...changed somewhat. If Altmer lived longer than the average, and some had two children, growth would be faster and more substantial. Nevertheless still outpaced hugely by Humans.
