Does anyone think gamesas will follow the same dev cycle from the last gen with:

TES title by Bethesda game studios

Fallout title from Bethesda game studios

Fallout title from Obsidian

Also,what are the odds that they will let Obsidian make a Fallout game again?

Obsidian making another Fallout, would be dependant on their own workload. They do have their own projects as well.

Otherwise, can't see the pattern of TES-Fallout-TES-Fallout changing much,,

I would assume that if BGS does all of the titles, it wouldn't change from the TES, FO, TES, FO. Of course, it's probably going to start with a Fallout this time since their latest release was a TES. The only reason why NV was released before Skyrim is because of Obsidian.

Personally, I would love Obsidian to be writing and developing for the next Fallout because New Vegas was imo the better game of the two titles released last gen, and while I have love for Fallout 3 because it is a great game, New Vegas was just more immersive.