First off, don't put words in quotes, that just makes me want to ignore your points even more. Secondly the Great war and the WGC are different then riots in a city. By that logic the Baltimore riots are going to keep going until 2028. Wayrest was attacked by pirates, not conquered.
You can't take a event from 13 years ago and say "YUP THIS IS HAPPENING NOW, YOU WRONG AND I'M GOING TO USE OTHER EVENTS TO PROVE YOU WRONG" seriously, if you can't come up with a good arguing point and prefer to grasp at straws then don't bother making a post.
You want to talk about a train wreck? Ulfric's entire rebellion is a train wreck. The dude has support sure, but he also has a lot of enemies, even in his own city. The tension in Windhelm is so strong it's enough to cause a riot, even if Ulfric wins not everyone supports him there are still a LOT of empire supporters. If Ulfric wins his forces will be stretched thin meaning the Forsworn
Spoiler who either have a leader or a martyr
would have an easier time retaking the reach. We already have a document stating that a force is building behind Pale Pass so if all goes total crap for Ulfric he'll be
1. Dealing with a revolt in his own city
2. Dealing with a new legion presence
3. Dealing with a more fierce forsworn presence
Add in the fact that his entire time as the war has been going on (maybe even longer then that) he has allowed bandits to prosper in his realm by not attacking them so long as they don't attack Nord caravans. All of Ulfric's jarls can't control their own men given how in Whiterun the guards are unruly and cause trouble not only in the tavern but also for local businesses and the Battleborn, spoiler alert if you don't want people to aid your enemies you DON'T let your troops abuse those who can fund and give supplies to them.
All that loud-mouth politician is doing is building up his own demise.
Ulfric has no allies, Ulfric has no support outside of skyrim, Ulfric has no one to help him when the crap hits the fan and trust me, I've been debating this crap for years and I sure as hell know what I'm talking about, add this to political and war history being my strong suit.
The idea that High Rock will aid him is also laughable so don't even bother saying that. The breton kingdoms haven't responded at all to Ulfric, no one cares about him and even if some do all that is going to do is cause a war between the kingdoms in High Rock. At most the Empire is the only thing keeping the High Rock Kingdoms from going to war again. Oh and don't bother with the "Oh High Rock isn't helping the Legion" no one asked for their help besides Ulfric.
Final point. Cyrodiil retaking skyrim proves a point, it's the point that they're done being walked on, they're done letting their territory go to hell. Cyrodiil retaking skyrim proves they are going to fight and we have damn well enough proof that the Empire has all the intention to fight.
You do know that Ulfric is the reason the Thalmor are in skyrim right? It was his demand for Talos worship in Markarth that brought them and it's his war that is bringing Talos worshipers out of the wood work. The Empire isn't happy about the treaty but it's something they need to rebuild, if idiots like Ulfric weren't trying to make matters worse and hurt humanity more there wouldn't be Thalmor in skyrim.