If there were only one planet, sure. Or only a hundred million. But with hundreds of billions of galaxies, each with about a billion rocky planets in the habitable zone? That makes for hundreds of quintillions (10^20) of planets where life could exist given the right preconditions.
So our base value is 10^20.
What's the chance of a planet having water? Call it one in a thousand, maybe? (10^-3)
Okay, now we've got 10^17 rocky planets with liquid water (habitable zone).
Now, recent discoveries in physics show that, given the possibility of life, organic molecules are likely to form on their own as a way of increasing entropy (life is great for that). Still kinda hard, though, so call it... meh, let's be really, really conservative and say one in a trillion (10^-12) chance that life evolves on a planet which can support it. (No way it's actually that low, it just doesn't make sense; the physicist who came up with the aforementioned theory stated that "If you shine a light on an ocean, you shouldn't be surprised when you get a plant.")
So now we have 10^5 planets in the Universe where life evolves. That's a hundred thousand living planets. And that's with some very conservative numbers. Call the chance of live evolving one in a million and you have a hundred billion planets with life. Give it a one in a thousand chance of evolving intelligence and you have a hundred million intelligent species out there.