Hey folks, Turkeysocks here. And like many Fallout fans, I’ve been busy speculating about the upcoming Fallout 4! And after doing some thinking and speculation for what I’ve thought up. So let us begin, shall we?

First up, we have confirmed that there are two possible protagonists, the male and female husband and wife. I’ll refer to them as Howard and Nora simply because it's better than saying male/female protagonist. This is actually big change in a Bethesda open world game, as in all previous open world games, the male and female protagonists are always the same person. So I expect that there will be different reactions and comments based on which gender you're playing. And to add in there, they have a son Shaun! So let us start with Vault 111!

Vault 111 Experiment Theory - Like many, I believe that Vault 111 is obviously a part of the Enclaves Vault Experiment, which was put in place so the Enclave would gather information before their original plan to traverse the stars for a new home, which seems to have been abandoned by the time of Fallout 2 for some reason. Like many, I believe this experiment involves cryogenic stasis. And the experiment was created to test the effects that long term cryogenic stasis, or whatever they are using to preserve the Vault residents, on the human body.

Theory #1 Military Coup:

My first theory as to what lead the vault to be abandoned is that there was military personnel in the Vault, and they rebelled against the Vault-Tec authorities. Why? Well, there are many reasons why, but first, let me explain why I believe there were military personnel in the Vault.

In both the trailer and E3 reveal, we see at least 7 military personnel: http://imgur.com/fF3P4gb standing atop the Vault with a Vault-Tec scientist and guard; http://i.imgur.com/ITPWWc8.png in fatigues directing civilians up the path too the Vault; http://i.imgur.com/qa6xzzq.png, two in power armor and one in fatigues holding a clipboard and dealing with civilians.

Than we have the possibility of 8 more military personnel: pilot and co-pilot of the http://i.imgur.com/UZgt6LN.png that just landed; also I've circled a person in the foreground and a person running in front of Nora that I'm counting as possible military personnel, but they may be Vault-Tec personnel too. We have a http://i.imgur.com/k7r5NoR.png too where I suspect is the checkpoint with the power armored soldiers. Than we have what appears too be an http://i.imgur.com/ITPWWc8.png (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LAV-25), which is crewed between 3 to 6 people. I'm guessing that the three soldiers standing outside are probably apart of the crew, so that means there are probably 3 more inside the vehicle in order too operate it in case of emergencies while evacuating civilians. This leads me to believe there was at least a dozen or more soldiers that were unseen, as they would have been patrolling the perimeter to ensure no one snuck through.

As far as we know, only one missile has hit Boston. Chances are, there are at least a few more to dozens more on the way when we consider what happened too other major US cities like Los Angeles, D.C., San Francisco, etc. etc.. But the blast is far enough away that no one would be hurt by it or the resulting hurricane force wind… unless of course you’re a kid, very light weight or just unlucky enough to get struck by debris.

I would speculate that they would’ve ran to Vault 111, and taken shelter there. After all, a nuclear blast went off, these blasts create a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse, or NEMP for short that would kill all non-shielded electronics… such as a Virtibird. The Vault was “sealed” when the first bomb went off. So it would still be safe from the NEMP.

So the Vault personnel took in those civilians who were on the list, and maybe even the civilians who weren’t in order to fill out their quota… if that was possible, and also took in the military personnel who would have been stranded due to the nuclear missile.

Now, I see two reasons for the coup:

1. The military personnel learned of the Vault Experiment somehow, and decided to take command of the Vault from the Vault-Tec/Enclave.
2. The Vault-Tec personnel tried to get the military personnel to take part in the experiment, and they refused because they were either awaiting orders from their superiors, or maybe they just didn’t trust being frozen.

Regardless of why they did it, tensions ran high till the point where the Vault-Tec and Military personnel clashed, which there are three outcomes I see:

1. The military won out, but the Vault was badly damaged and could no longer sustain human life on a large scale. They then decided to abandon the Vault and retreat to a fallback position that they would have done so if the bombs had gone off after they were finished with their Vault assignment. They awoke anyone they could safely wake up, and left the rest too fate.
2. The Vault-Tec personnel managed to defeat the military coup, but like the first outcome, the Vault could no longer be used. So the scientist fell back to another Vault-Tec location and would attempt to monitor the Vault remotely.
3. Both sides were ultimately wiped out in the coup.

Theory #2 Everyone’s a Popsicle!:

The Vault was never intended to host human inhabitants, and everyone was going to be put in cryogenic stasis, including the technicians and scientists, from the start. The scientists and technicians would be remotely woken up periodically to keep the Vault in working order and make more detailed reports, but would be for the most part, remotely observed by the Enclave.

Now, what happened here? Chances are, a system malfunction cut them off from the Enclave or whoever was observing them. This same system malfunction also lead to those who needed to be awoken in case of an emergency to not work properly. Resulting in the scientist and technicians not being woken up from their stasis, either at all, or at least in time to repair the damage that decades to over a century of neglect made it near impossible to fix.

Now in either scenario, without a doubt many who were left in their pods died when the power too their pods failed, or the system failed to wake them up properly. Those few who were woken up safely, realized they couldn’t or didn’t have the technical know-how to fix the vault, awoke those they could, or couldn't awake the remaining people safely, and left their lives in the hands of fate.

Theory #3 The Institute Invades:

Now the Institute, which is an organization that sprouted out from the remains of the former Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is probably the most advanced organization that has survived, and being the only organization that has actually continued to advance science, the other organization that had done something similar would have been the Enclave, which is most likely consists of scattered groups in various locations across the US after consecutive defeats on both the West and East coasts.

Without a doubt, these men and women who have continued to advance in science, probably sought out Vaults in the surrounding areas. Why? Well, for starters, there’s the Garden of Eden Creation Kit, or G.E.C.K, which would have terraformed the local lands for farming as well as a stable supply of power. Then there was the advanced knowledge held in the Vaults, which they could have come too fear as a possible threat to their power. Though, to be honest, we don’t know much about the Institute… so they might simply just be looking for more scientifically advanced humans.

Regardless of why, the Institute came in and awoke whom they could, and moved those they couldn’t wake up safely out of the vault in their pod to attempt later. However, whichever protagonist you chose is not taken away, probably because their pod is in an area they considered out of reach, overlooked or they simply thought it wouldn’t be possible to move without killing the person and left it.

Now you’re probably asking, what happened to your spouse and son? Well, I have a few theories as too that:

1. Your spouse never made it into the Vault! This might be a tough cookie to swallow, however, if we look at the scene after Howard leaves the Vault, a http://imgur.com/Y9LiDnX with what looks too have been wearing a short sleeve light blue shirt that http://imgur.com/LX5qCS9 was wearing is found right outside the Vault. Now, you might say, Turk, why didn’t Howard realize it was his wife? Well, if you were in the same situation where you’ve probably seen more dead bodies in the last hour or so of your life after waking up, would you really be paying attention to what a skeleton would be wearing?
2. Your spouse made it into the Vault and was put into cryogenic stasis. In which case, I view the following points as a possibility:
   1. Your spouse’s pod fails and he/she dies
   2. Your spouse woke up days, weeks, months, years or decades before you and has managed to survive in the wastelands with your son.
   3. The Institute awoke or took his/her pod along with your son, and took them out of the Vault.
   4. Your spouse awoke safely with your son, but died sometime before you awoke out in the wastes.

interesting ideas. Only time will tell.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5esyZPt5Jo

if you note that howard and nora are both outside the vault when the bomb goes off and Todd Howard says "don't worry, you do survive and get lowered into the vault"

at 9:15 of the video you are standing on top of the sealed vault with others at the time the bomb goes off. So we know you don't initially get access into the vault. But some how you survive the blast and someone lowers you to safety. This may have some impact as to who is controlling the vault and pulling the strings.

why would they (whoever they are) open the hatch and let you in?

why would they use one of their limited and precious cryogenic chambers on someone who just took a nuke to the face?

We most likely will find out on november 10th

EDIT: if you notice when you leave the vault you pick up a pipboy from a dead vault tec person wearing a white vault tec lab coat. This may also be a clue as to what happened to the vault

My theory, your whole family survives but you are all put into Cryo Stasis for experimentation (This is Vault Tec after all ), over the course of 200 years certain people randomly selected get woken up by the andorids/caretakers and they are forced to leave the Vault. You are the last one of these people and my guess your family was released earlier and your trying to find evidence of what happened to them. You question the Andorids/caretakers and they don't like your tone, so you have to fight your way out of the Vault.

I know this, there is probably going to be fighting in the Vault, Beth has to have a tutorial somewhere.

I don't think this is probable because in the E3 trailer you pick up a pipboy from a dead vault tec skeleton. So some incident must have happened a while ago. long enough for a problematic scenario to happen (mutiny, raider attack, system failure, ect). Because the body INSIDE the vault is a skeleton it had to be long enough for the body to decompose.

Where did you see a skeleton inside the vault???

EDIT: Note you are wearing it when the vault door rises.

https://youtu.be/D5esyZPt5Jo?t=9m43s

My theory on Vault 111 is this: It's a relatively small vault with very limited supplies, and everyone admitted except one (the Overseer) is put into stasis. Preiodically, the Overseer wakes everyone up, they survey the situation outside the vault to deternine if it is habitable yet, and then vote for a new Overseer before being put back into stasis. This would be the Vault-Tec experiment; to observe the behaviour of an isolated individual responsible for the wellbeing of many others in stasis.

Eventually, either the current Overseer dies in some mishap and therefore everyone is left in stasis until their pods fail or the automatic failsafe is triggered, or more likely goes insane, with equally disastrous results.

You survive for 200 years by cryogenic suspension and are the sole survivor of the vault. My theory is that life in the vault goes well for only a few years but then supplies start to run low (as part of the experiment the vault was given few supplies) then the vault door automatically opens (sending the inhabitants who are already on the edge into a struggle for survivol) and cannot be closed (after waking up theirs many dead vault dwellers as you make your way out of the vault) leaving you and your family with only one option, to go into cryogenic suspension (supposed to be for a couple more years while the outside world heals but it ends up being 200 years). Wether the family survives or not my guess is that they wake up a tad earlier than you.

When he picks up the pipboy its around a skeleton's arm in a lab coat.

Also I pointed out on a different thread that there is a tape labeled "we are done" and "your new assignment" that could be a little hint?

I still don't see him picking it up. All I see is him being raised in the vault lift and he already has it on his arm.

Give a link please.

https://youtu.be/1t_YHgo_HN4?t=12m20s

During the e3 demo just before they talk about the psychical pipboy I think its around the 13 minute mark??

I'm tending towards this part. The leaked scripts turned out to be real (after all, Preston Garvey and the whole scripted conversation took place in the Microsoft conference), and as part of the script the 'Player' is giving a speech to other people inside the vault, so it's likely you're up and around with other people at some point. I doubt anyone would willingly volunteer for a random cryogenic sleep all the while some mysterious Vault battle took place and killed the Vault scientists. I can foresee the cryogenics as being either something you're forced to do, or a rational idea if an upcoming conflict, or lack of resources, is about to become your reality.

Watch the entire video I posted, you pick up the pipboy from a skeleton with a vault tec coat on

http://i.imgur.com/5cxhSRf.png

I think your family is still on ice, for whatever reason only you were defrosted and you need help to wake them. You probably are looking for someone who can safely wake them.

It may be that they woke before you and you are trying to find them but I think it is unlikely. Creating a safe environment for your family before waking them provides motivation for the settlements trade routes side of things and looking for someone to help wake them provides motivation for going to the institute.

If they were already out there you would be rushing to find them and wouldn't have time for all the radial stuff and if they were dead (and everyone else you have ever known and loved it being 200 years in the future) there is not much motivation to continue you would likely shoot yourself as soon as you get a gun.

I doubt that's where you get the Pipboy from, it was probably put there for the demo.

Thanks for the links all. I completely forgot about that scene.

That Pip Boy did show some gear and weapons, so can we assume we'll be picking those up during our time in the vault?

Also it looks like we are outside the vault door when we get the pipboy as there's seems to be sunlight on us and the vault door can be seen in the background. Could the scientist have been killed 200 years ago? I know nothing really last for 200 years like it does in FO, but in FO if you can find edible beans I assume the scientist corpse could be 200 years old.

But this wouldn't make you the sole survivor in any way...

I work third shift, so I just posted and went too sleep:P

Well, I would speculate that there's already a number of Vault-Tec staff down in the Vault. So it was the staff who let us in, and chances are considering that this Vault experiment involves cryogenics, or some other form of stasis, most of them are going to be scientist/technicians, and the higher levels will know that this is meant to be an experiment. And if they don't have enough people... well the Vault-Tec staff would be used.

And yeah, we probably will either find clues or find out what happened in the Vault with the http://imgur.com/stHTLNI. I'm looking forward too reading the logs and that new assignment that whoever was wearing that pipboy last got.

Based on the fact that inside the Vault there's a dead scientist/technician that we take our pipboy from, chances are that there is no andriods/caretakers. Though you'll probably have to fight your way out of the Vault anyways, being infested with rad roaches and probably mole rats too.

This is possible. Though I'd question why Bethesda would put another "isolate one person" experiment when they already have http://fallout.wikia.com/wiki/Vault_77... but they've done worse.

As it was said, this wouldn't make your character the "Sole Survivor" of Vault 111. Chances are, Howard/Nora (depending on who you chose too play) is the last person in the Vault alive when they woke up... or at least the only one who walked out alive.

We also don't know exactly what kind of place the Institute is... other than being synth slavers.

Well, if you don't know where your family is, rushing off too find them would only waste time. I'd say if they were out there, the idea of creating settlements and trade routes, is a way too spread the word that Howard/Nora is still alive and looking for his/her spouse and son. And if they are dead... the PC isn't aware of it yet.

If the scientist/technician corpse that we get our pipboy from is outside of the Vault door, than he's in the lift area, which is 'sealed', though whether other survivors woke up from stasis before and managed too leave the Vault prior too Howard/Nora, I cannot say. What I can say though, is that we don't know the location of the skeleton we get our pipboy, I know a number of people posted that he has too be in the lift area, but we're shown next too nothing other than Howard picking up and shaking off the skeletal wrist still attached too our pipboy. Though in the reveal trailer you see the vault door http://imgur.com/vAmRur4, Vault's design is different from all the other Vaults we've seen. Looks like they put in grated metal flooring, at least in the vault door area and outside. So until more of the Vault itself is shown, where the scientist/technician's skeleton is located is unknown. He could have been in the lift area... or maybe just inside somewhere close too the doors' control room.

I like the notion of the institute raiding the adjacent vaults. These guy's probably have members that date back pre-war, so it's possible they had an idea of what was going on inside the various vaults.

Another really strong theory I have seen is that there may be crossover between the ZAX "John Henry Eden" computer and the local vaults. To my understanding, Enclave headquarters were somewhat involved with the vault research program (they would receive information from the overseers). So, it's possible that the events within Vault 111 tie in with the destruction of the ZAX computer over in D.C.

I would say it's possible that when John Henry Eden gained sentience, it might've created a malfunction in the systems he was designed too receive information from and send it along the way. Or as you say, when he was destroyed it might've lead to catastrophic system meltdown among the non-sentient systems. So if he was supposed too watch over Vault 111's system and awake scientists/technicians when there's an issue, yeah, his destruction would've screwed the pooch for the Vault.