Seeing as this discussion became present in several other threads and I don't see one about it (and especially not one with a poll), I decided to open this tread.

As far as I go, I hope either Institute or BoS endings get canonized as they would make the Commonwealth matter more in the future.

As far as expectations go, I checked every criteria...

- Effort Criteria - expectation that Beth spent most effort on the ones they want to canonize and the least on ones they don't: Minutemen ending will definitely not be canon - Beth spent the least effort on their MQ branch and did not even give them an achievement so they seem to mostly be a failsafe (just like Yes-Man in NV). Other three got decent amount of effort spent on their branches, thus all are fitting by this criteria. Still, the Minutemen are the only ones not having to fear being destroyed as the canon Sole Survivor will likely be a Minutemen General. I don't know which criteria Beth will follow, but I think this one definitely eliminates the Minutemen, otherwise, Beth would give them a larger MQ branch

- Promotional material - expectation that Beth shows the canon route material: in trailers, the BoS are the enemy of the Sole Survivor and the Fall of Prydwen scene looks like the one from the Institute version (SS alone gazes upon falling blimp) rather than Minutemen version (the Minutemen and their general gaze upon it) or the Railroad version (you see it from a vertibird)

- Good always wins criteria: seems like Institute to me. While the Institute are not good guys per se, they are the good ending of a family-related story, which Beth seems to want this one to be. Additionally, "Hi Honey!" holotape practically tells you to go for it ("But everything we do, no matter how hard... we do it for our family."). In contrast, the cutscene of all three Nuclear Option endings compares the Sole Survivor's actions to the ones that ended the world

- Achievement criteria - expectatio that Beth chooses the canon based on popular player choices: the Institute ending seems to be the most popular, followed closely by BoS wile Railroad is far behind. Impossible to guess the MM popularity. This is based only on Steam achievements, but I doubt that it is much different amongst the platforms: BoS and Institute seem like best choice if the Dev decides upon popularity

- "What fits best with our future plans" criteria: impossible to guess for anyone but Beth...

Thus, I expect the Institute. But I might just be biased XP I do think MM won't be canonized though. So little effort and lack of "Solved the MQ with them!" achievement makes them unlikely in my books.

Well, it is also possible that they will try to not canonizing anything like in TES games, but I doubt it. The future of BoS alone requires a canon ending and they don't seem to follow no-canon philosophy anymore, even in TES.

So what are your opinions and wishes, folks?

Wish = BoS

Expect = BoS

Bethesda set up Arthur taking over the east coast in Fallout 3, I highly doubt they wont have that happen

I personally expect the Minutemen, as they're the closest thing to an "independent," ending. Which is why I prefer that ending, actually, despite the Institute being my favorite faction.

Someone brought up the possibility of him surviving. Seeing as he only directly dies in Institute ending (or if the player kills him themselves), he might have gotten away (or been absent) during the fall of Prydwen in case M or RR endings get canonized... but then again, he survived a Deathclaw at age of 13 so maybe Institute SS just thinks he killed him.

I would prefer him losing and surviving though. He is too interesting and full of potential to just be killed off IMO, and a big defeat might make him grow more as a character.

I would like to see him win, if only so that in Fallout 5: The Broken Banks(Charleston, South Carolina), we see a hyper-tyrannical BoS, that has literally become The Enclave 2.0, and the MC gets to slap Arthur around, and point out he has become the very thing he sought to destroy this whole time.

I also want him to win so I can see people stop complaining the east coast doesn't have its own NCR tier nation.

With time, granted, a lot of time, I could see the Minutemen becoming the New Commonwealth Republic

In the Minutemen ending, they do practically become the de-facto government of the Boston area. They have their hands in basically every settlement save Goodneighbor (not that that's a bad thing, mind you. They bring a lot of stability and unity.)

But to quote the settlers: "Hope they last this time."

Either way, the Institute, Minutmen or Institute+Minutemen are factions that will likely reform the Commonwealth Provisional Government while the BoS will make turn it another province of their growing empire. Since Railroad get rid of other enemies, the Minutemen will form it if the General restored them. Otherwise, Gunners gonna be happy.

The Institute is obviously set up to be the Bad GuysTM and the Directorship being the "dark gray" ending.

After all, THREE companions call you out on it.

Preston
Piper

Nick Valentine

If you make a decision in the Marvel universe and three people call you out on it:

Captain America

Spiderman
Sue Storm

Then you better damn well worry about that decision. Because those are the three most MORAL companions in your arsenal and all of them think this was a TERRIBLE idea.

Nevertheless, Institute winning might mean the Institute could appear in future Fallout games and I think it has BoS-levels of potential for lore.

Indeed. The Railroad ending and the Evil!Institute are the only two I see leading to the Commonwealth continuing to be anarchic.

Personally, I think Beth, if they go with a canon ending at all, will go with the BOS or Minutemen, as they're the two factions that actually bring real change to the Commonwealth, and Bethesda has never followed the "Status Qou is God" trope* for fictional worlds (thankfully).

Additionally, both are easy to write around so they don't directly contradict the player's choice.

If BOS becomes canon, we can assume that if the player sided with the Minutemen/Institute/Railroad, the Brotherhood comes back with an even bigger army and takes the Commonwealth anyway.

If Minutemen becomes canon, we can assume that the Brotherhood/ Institute were eventually overthrown in an uprising anyway if the player sided with either of them.


*For those unfamiliar, this trope is basically when writers strive to avoid permanently changing their fictional worlds. For example, this is why superheroes and villians are never permanently killed off in comic book universes. Beth, however, isn't afraid to have their worlds change over time- the vast changes in Tamriel between Oblivion and Skyrim being a notable example.

I'm not even voting. And a "No cannon" option would have been nice. I'm a firm believer in letting players decide for themselves what should be cannon or not. It's what makes games like mass Effect and the Witcher so great. And while games should have differences, certain similarities can work very well in multiple game types. Especially when it's all RPG and in a series.

I'd like to see whatever canon, the Institute have facilities in surrounding states.

Maybe because they were evacuated or because they have expanded to become an Empire.

Synths are too cool to throw away.

In my railroad ending after planting the bombs and escaping the Prydwin he was waiting on the command deck with 4 soldiers and a mini-gun. The Institute ending he only shows up in full power armor at the very last second and it can be hard to kill him before you're teleported out. In fact I completely missed him on my first Institute ending and was a bit depressed I didn't get to kill him. Haha

We all want there not to be a canon, but there probably will be. It's all but established that the LW was good karma.

I named the Assault Rifle which killed him.

It's called "Red Wedding."

Because it killed the Boy King.

Bam! I like it! Haha

Preston - doesn't call you out for it, just wonders if it is the right choice. Which is surprising as he has good reason to hate them for they ruined the last attempt to form a unified government in Commonwealth. Now I didn't use him as a companion, but judging by wiki he seems to be one of very few who doesn't disapprove of aiding the Institute (granted, maybe the wiki page just isn't finished)

Piper - a journalist who is more afraid Institute than most and was active in rallying people against them. However, if you accumulate high affinity with her, she is hopeful

Nick - can't be pleased, that's for sure. But he is the type of guy who would never cooperate with those who are not just, especially if it ends in death of just people (Railroad)

Travis - sounded pretty optimistic to me

To be quite honest I expected more people to act like Nick Valentine did. But strangely, most are either neutral or happy that someone took care of the BoS. Makes me wonder what the hell is wrong with them all, I'd buy the first ticket to Capital Wasteland if I were them.

Oooooohhh

*Insane paranoid Diamond City citizen voice*

YOU KNOW WHERE MASS EFFECT ENDED UP, RIGHT!?

THAT WAY LAYS MADNESS!

The BOS have some severe PR problems in the Capital Wasteland.

You can even argue with Nick using it.

"Why the hell would you side with the Institute!?"

"Did you want the Brotherhood of Steel to win?"

"Er...no."

Wow. Nick's 60+ year hatred of the Institute is troubled by the BoS.

Eh, to be fair ME gets around this by twisting the plot in the most convoluted ways so that your choices don't really matter. The only major changes your choices can make is in the Genophage and Rannoch arcs in ME3. Otherwise, even choices that were hyped up as having huge consequences, like killing the Rachni queen or letting the Council die, are mostly inconsequential. Still love that series though.

Can't comment too much on the Witcher since I'm not a fan, but I believe they use the "huge catastrophic event happens that renders the consequences of all your choices pointless" card, correct?

Bethesda usually sets their games far away from each other, either geographically, chronologically, or both, to get around this issue. FO4 is a slight exception, since it renders two possible choices (nuking up Megaton, blowing up the Citadel) non-canon, but those options were both "stupid evil" and would have been taken by few serious players. They still get around the ending of "The Replicated Man" by saying Zimmer is off on a long term assignment.

Yeah, The Witcher has a hundred complicated and important choices both political as well as social in The Witcher 2.

Then Nilfgaard (The Evil Empire) invades and all of that becomes pointless.

Honestly, unless we are going to be in the commonwealth again, there is no real reason to have an explicit canon. Implied, maybe.

To answer the questions, I have no wish or expectation on what is gonna be canon, especially since I have not actually seen any of the endings yet.

As the game is now the only one I see that could be canonized are the Minutemen because they are the only faction that could possibly be neutral to all other factions. It's still a bit early to decide though as we still have DLCs coming out which could either be simple side quests or add whole new chapters to the game.

Personally, I'm hoping for new chapters because of the way the main quest ends. They could continue this game for years doing that with all the boarded up houses and buildings as new locations.

I voted for BoS, because they are my favourite faction ever in Fallout and i would like to see the Maxson/East Coast Chapter as a potential villain in the next game. I think the Minutemen will be canon though, the start of a new NCR for the East Coast. And as mentioned above, they can be neutral to everyone. There is no ending that requires you to wipe out the Minutemen(?), and that really reinforces the idea that they will be the canon. We'll see though, 8 years or something till we get Fallout 5.

My only wish is that if the BoS loses that Maxson escapes from the Prydwen last minute and feels like crap for his failure and all the people that died under his command.