Really short story (after two months of playing with consistent CTDs): I repacked the Dawnguard.bsa file to include the USKP-DB files with BSAopt set at '10(quick)' compression. Two days ago, I noticed that the vanilla bsa is not compressed. So, I repacked mine without compression. CTDs have stopped.
Before I go into detail of how I discovered this I have to ask... Does this make any sense? I have also noticed that some vanilla BSAs are not compressed and some are. The game never had a problem loading the assets from the Dawnguard.bsa (when it didn't CTD). So, it could possibly be a game engine flaw handling the memory for BSA decompression.
I would not be asking this if I have not already spent several days playing normally and even reloading much older saves to test the situations that always caused the CTDs. I am reasonably sure this is not just a coincidence.
These are:
1) A dragon spawns when I fast travel to or leave the interior of Falkreath.
2) Vampires spawn in Whiterun.
3) I approach the Whitewatch Tower for the first time, 3 bandits spawn.
4) Less frequent: I enter the Dawnguard HQ.
Thanks.