Howdy. This is my third time around with Oblivion, always extensively modded. First time I've run into this particular problem.
About the time I got to Kvatch (or maybe on the road to Kvatch), EVERYONE started freaking out about "someone's been murdered". They yell and run around, but never find anything, and eventually stop and wander back to where they're supposed to be - then do it again a couple of minutes later. I closed the Oblivion gate, did the siege of Kvatch quest despite the guards acting crazy, and thought maybe once I left Kvatch it would stop, but it was still happening at Cloud Ruler Temple, even (fast traveled to Weynon Priory and Cloud Ruler specifically to test it).
I've successfully used most of these mods in the past, but it's the first time I've used Frans and the "extra people" mods (Immersive Travelers, kuertee's Wandering Encounters, Friendly Fire for Frans - and some others, but those are the ones that seem most likely to be relevant). I'm also running the Steam version for the first time, and some of the DLC (previously had GOTY edition with Shivering Isles and Knights of the Nine).
Here's my load order from Wrye Bash. Any ideas what's going on or how to stop it?
Spoiler
? 00 Oblivion.esm
? 01 All Natural Base.esm [Version 1.34]
? 02 Francesco's Leveled Creatures-Items Mod.esm [Version 5.0]
? 03 Francesco's Optional New Items Add-On.esm [Version 5.0]
? 04 Francesco's Optional New Creatures Add-On.esm [Version 5.0]
? 05 bookplacing.esm [Version 1]
? 06 Fundament.esm
? 07 RealisticLeveling.esm
? 08 Unofficial Oblivion Patch.esp [Version 3.5.3]
? 09 Oblivion Citadel Door Fix.esp
? 0A DLCShiveringIsles.esp
? 0B Unofficial Shivering Isles Patch.esp [Version 1.5.7]
? ? ? MOBS SI.esp [Version 2.0]
? 0C MOBS SI Optional Combat Settings.esp [Version 1.2.2a]
? 0D Francesco's Creatures and Items Resources.esp [Version 5.0]
? ++ LoadingScreens.esp
? 0E All Natural.esp [Version 1.34]
? 0F All Natural - SI.esp [Version 1.34]
? 10 Immersive Interiors.esp [Version 0.8.1]
? 11 Immersive Interiors - Bravil.esp [Version 2.01]
? 12 Immersive Interiors - Landscape Addon.esp
? 13 Enhanced Water v2.0 HDMI.esp
? 14 All Natural - Real Lights.esp [Version 1.34]
? 15 Cities Alive At Night.esp
? 16 WindowLightingSystem.esp
? 17 AliveWaters.esp
? 18 AliveWaters - Koi Addon.esp
? 19 AliveWaters - Slaughterfish Addon.esp
? 1A Book Jackets Oblivion.esp
? 1B Book Jackets Oblivion - BP.esp
? 1C BAKAdventurerTorch.esp
? 1D RAEVWD Cities.esp [Version 1.9]
? 1E RAEVWD New Sheoth.esp [Version 1.7]
? 1F RAEVWD Imperial City.esp [Version 1.9]
? ? ? VA_BetterGold.esp
? 20 Enhanced Economy.esp [Version 5.4.3]
? 21 Immersive Travelers.esp
? 22 DarNifiedUI Config Addon.esp
? 23 Display Stats.esp [Version 2.0.1]
? 24 Duke Patricks - Friendship Ring For Companion Detection.esp [Version 1.8]
? 25 Get Wet - just droplets.esp
? 26 kuerteeCleanUp.esp
? 27 Lock Bash Omega.esp [Version 1.5]
? 28 marksman_challenge.esp
? 29 Streamline 3.1.esp
? 2A Map Marker Overhaul.esp [Version 3.9.3]
? 2B Map Marker Overhaul - SI additions.esp [Version 3.9.3]
? 2C DLCHorseArmor.esp
? 2D DLCHorseArmor - Unofficial Patch.esp [Version 1.0.8]
? 2E DLCOrrery.esp
? 2F DLCOrrery - Unofficial Patch.esp [Version 1.0.6]
? 30 DLCVileLair.esp
? 31 DLCVileLair - Unofficial Patch.esp [Version 1.0.11]
? ? ? Lair_MOBS.esp [Version 2.0]
? ? ? VileLair_MOBS.esp [Version 2.0]
? 32 DLCMehrunesRazor.esp
? 33 DLCMehrunesRazor - Unofficial Patch.esp [Version 1.0.7]
? ? ? Mehrunes_MOBS.esp [Version 2.0]
? 34 DLCSpellTomes.esp
? ++ DLCSpellTomes - Unofficial Patch.esp [Version 1.0.1]
? ++ MaleBodyReplacerV5.esp
? ? ? RTFemaleReplacerV12.esp
? 35 SpeechcraftEnhanced.esp
? 36 Slof's Horses Base.esp
? 37 kuerteeHorseCommands.esp
? 38 Dude Wheres My Horse.esp
? 39 DLCThievesDen.esp
? 3A DLCThievesDen - Unofficial Patch.esp [Version 1.0.13]
? 3B DLCThievesDen - Unofficial Patch - SSSB.esp [Version 1.0.13]
? ? ? ThievesDen_MOBS.esp [Version 2.0]
? 3C Francesco's More Wilderness Life.esp [Version 5.0]
? 3D Francesco's Optional Dungeon Chest Loot.esp [Version 5.0]
? 3E Francesco's Optional Dungeon Chest Locks.esp [Version 5.0]
? 3F Francesco's Optional Leveled Guards.esp [Version 5.0]
? 40 Francesco's Optional New Adventurers.esp [Version 5.0]
? ++ Francesco's Optional Vendor Tweaks.esp [Version 5.0]
? 41 Francesco's Optional Leveled Arena.esp [Version 5.0]
? 42 Harvest[Containers].esp
? 43 Harvest[Containers] - Flat-Top Barrels Add-on.esp
? 44 kuerteeWanderingEncounters.esp
? 45 Friendly Fire for Frans.esp
? 46 DLCBattlehornCastle.esp
? 47 DLCBattlehornCastle - Unofficial Patch.esp [Version 1.0.11]
? ? ? Battlehorn_MOBS.esp [Version 2.0]
? 48 DLCFrostcrag.esp
? 49 DLCFrostcrag - Unofficial Patch.esp [Version 1.0.9]
? 4A Knights.esp
? 4B Knights - Unofficial Patch.esp [Version 1.1.6]
? ? ? Knights_MOBS.esp [Version 2.0]
? ? ? DLC_MOBS.esp [Version 2.0]
? 4C Harvest [Flora].esp [Version 3.0.0]
? ++ Harvest [Flora] - Shivering Isles.esp [Version 3.0.0]
? ++ Harvest [Flora] - DLCVileLair.esp [Version 3.0.0]
? 4D Harvest [Flora] - DLCFrostcrag.esp [Version 3.0.0]
? ++ BrighterTorches_v1.2.esp
? 4E Dungeon Actors Have Torches 1.6 DT.esp
? 4F Exterior Actors Have Torches 1.32 DT.esp
? 50 kuerteeInventoryIsABackpack.esp
? 51 Class Advantages.esp [Version 1.01]
? 52 PersuasionOverhaul.esp
? 53 Potable Pastiche.esp
? 54 Toggleable Quantity Prompt.esp [Version 3.2.0]
? 55 Enhanced Economy - House prices.esp [Version 5.4.3]
? 56 Galerion Unarmored Acrobatics- Uncapped.esp
? 57 ConduitMagic.esp
? 58 SM Combat Hide.esp [Version 1.2]
? 59 PTSneakPenalties.esp
? 5A StealthOverhaul.esp
? 5B Morrowind Lockpicking.esp
? 5C RenGuardOverhaul.esp
? 5D kuerteeAttributeAndSkillBasedDamageModifiers.esp
? 5E Duke Patricks - Near Miss Magic And Arrows Alert The Target.esp [Version 7.1]
? 5F Duke Patricks - Actors Can Miss Now.esp
? 60 Duke Patricks - Fresh Kills Now Alert The NPCs.esp [Version 4]
? 61 ActorValueUncapper_Example.esp
? 62 Bundlement.esp
? 63 Kobu's Lighter Backpack Mod.esp
? ++ Immediate Character Generation.esp
? ? ? Cava Obscura - Cyrodiil.esp
? ? ? Cava Obscura - SI.esp
? ? ? Cava Obscura - Filter Patch For Mods.esp
? 64 bgBalancingEVCore.esp [Version 10.0EV-L]
? ++ Disable Tutorial Text.esp
? ? ? [GFX]_Initial_Glow-self.esp
? ? ? [GFX]_Initial_Glow-creatures.esp
? ++ kuerteeEffectDrainShaderInitialGlowOnly.esp
? ++ LifeDetectReduced.esp
? 65 kuerteeNightEyeShader.esp
? 66 MiniMap.esp
? ? ? All Natural - Indoor Weather Filter For Mods.esp [Version 1.34]
? ++ Merged Patch.esp
? 67 Bashed Patch, 0.esp