In the cancelled Fallout movie's treatment, they hint at Vault-Tec being the ones who basically pushed humanity into the Great War to test their experiments and to fulfil Vault-Tec's CEO's prophecy of nuclear war. I began thinking last night about the Vault-Tec Rep's dialogue with you when you reserve your space in Vault 111, and it seems as though he's extremely nervous. It's as if he knew the war was coming that day, or at least really soon. If that's the case, he had to have heard it from somewhere.

If Vault-Tec had inside information on the impending apocalypse, then that could either confirm that they were involved in launching the nukes or that they had gained that information from somewhere, likely the US government or maybe a privately-funded spy organization operating in China? I suppose it's entirely possible that they just speculated the war was impending because of global events, but it almost feels like Bethesda was (intentionally or not) confirming at least one part of the movie treatment as canon. We all knew that Vault-Tec was demented but if their CEO actually did start the war to test their experiments and fulfil his prophecy, then Vault-Tec is now on a whole new level of evil. It also would help to clear up one of the last mysteries of the actual war itself, being that we all know now when the Great War began.

As I said, it's likely this is all coincidence, and the Vault-Tec rep was just told to say what he said or speculated the war was near based upon global affairs, but it would be interesting if Vault-Tec really was behind the war. What do you guys think?

No they didn't. They confirmed in Fallout 4 that it was indeed China who started the Great War as mentioned in Fallout 2.

Fallout 4 confirms it was the Chinese that fired first, and that the U.S. launched on warning.

I must have missed that, where did they mention that?

President Richardson tells us it was China in Fallout 2: "We were winning, too. And then those damn Reds launched everything they had. We barely got our birds up."

Fallout 4 confirms it with the intro part where we are in our house on October 23, 2077 and the TV guy tells us of an attack. Then of course the nukes hit. There is also the Chinese Sub Captain that tells us he was given the orders to attack the very cities mentioned during that opening. There is also The Switchboard that tells that America was attacked first.

I remember the reference in Fallout 2, but I didn't recall hearing the news anchor telling us that China launched the nukes, just that there were detonations in various areas. I do remember Zao though, but that didn't necessarily mean he was attacking just to attack; it could have been retaliatory orders from the Chinese military HQ. Anyways, the Switchboard just said that China possibly launched first. It didn't confirm.

Either way, was the Vault-Tec Rep's nervousness just because he speculated the war was really near, or did he maybe hear something? Or maybe he's just naturally nervous, but that wouldn't explain why

I've put nearly 200 hrs into Fallout 4 and still haven't seen everything so forgive me for the ignorance, I'm just trying to figure things out lol

The Switchboard:

"23003ROCT77 COMPACFT REPORTS 3 USOS OFF CALIF COAST, JCS ADVISE"

"230337ROCT77 USAF HAS EYES ON SQUADRON OF AIRPLANES (POSS. CHINESE) AT HIGH ATTITUDE OFF BERING STRAIGHT"

"230913ROCT77 IONS REPORTS 4 PROBABLE LAUNCHES **DEFCON 2**

"230917ROCT77 NORAD CONFIRMS BIRDS IN THE AIR **DEFCON1**

"230926ROCT77 AUTHENTICATED ORDER -- RESPONSE SCENARIO MX-CN91-- REPEAT MX-CN91"

"230943ROCT77 PENNSYLVANIA, NEW YORK -- CONFIRM STRIKE

This goes hand in hand with what Richardson tells us in Fallout 2. That China attacked first. America was taken by surprise as pointed out in the intro with the news broadcast. The Chinese sub captain's orders and we could possibly include the reports of Chinese stealth subs, I believe P.A.M talks about them.

There is way more evidence to tells us China fired first. It is confirmed at this point.

The Vault Tec rep thing is just shoehorned writing. "hey sign up to get into a Vault." Minute later the Great War happens.

He's just naturally nervous. He's got that "weasel" salesmen personality down to a T.

Later on, he explains the only reason he was going door to door was to try and win a steak-knife set. He was just a low-level salesmen basically.

I would make sense for the Chinese to launch their nukes, rather than the U.S. The U.S. was winning the war, and had troops in China fighting their way to Beijing. China, feeling there was no other option, would definitely fire their nuclear arsenal as a last ditch effort.

If China is going down, they are taking the U.S. with them.

There comes a point when the evidence is so overwhelming it can't be anything else. Vault Tec was a company hired by the United States government. They weren't some Guild of Calamitous Intent or the Illuminati. The things Vault Tec were involved in were because the Government told them to do it.

You are right other nations did have nukes. The USSR was still around the Switchboard does tell us America planned for a USSR China attack scenario. We know the Great War was more than just a conflict between China and the United Stated (the Sino-American War), it was a World War, aka World War 3. So yes other countries were involved. So when Richardson mentions "The Reds" it could mean he was talking about China and the Soviet Union or simply just China.

True there is nothing that says clearly "China fired first guys" in any of the games but damn does everything need to be spelled out for people to get the point? There is no evidence that Vault Tec started the Great War. Yet there are many references that tell us it was China that started the Great War. That China was the main threat to the United States of America. After all China was at war with the United States, China had invaded and held on to most of Alaska for over a decade. So it makes sense the Maoist Communist Chinese Government, about to be crushed by the United States played the only card they had left. They used their nukes and took the World down with them.

The thing is the Vault experiments weren't Vault Tec's experiments, they were the United States Government's experiments.

Bethesda has done nothing to suggest it was Vault Tec and a lot of things to tell us it was China. Supporting what Fallout 2 tells us. Somethings the most simple explanation is the correct one.

Fallout has never been about the causes of The Great War. Its always relegated that to the backdrop:

"...the details are trivial and pointless: the reasons, as always, purely human ones..."

Having the start of the Great War be some sort of grand conspiracy or the result of the Vault-Tec Illuminati would kind of go against that whole idea. The Great War being pretty predictable in how it occurred is right in line with that philosophy. China firing first shouldn't be surprise really, because its not really supposed to be a surprise.

Its kind of ironically, and tragically, mundane. There's no "gotcha!" moment or M. Night Shamalamadingdong style plot twist. No aliens, no shadow corp pulling the strings to cause the war, and no underground mole-people starting the war so that they can finally colonize the surface. Just failed diplomacy, aggressive nations, and a wounded China that had been forced into a corner.

And honestly, thats a great thing. Because it connects Fallout to the real world in a very real and terrifying way. Everything that causes The Great War in Fallout, is exactly the sort of thing that can, and almost has, caused a Nuclear Holocaust in reality.

I suppose you guys have a point, it's just that most fiction tries to pull plot twists every corner you turn which is why I guess it's so surprising to have such a simple solution.