I updated a huge number of bash tags on some mods, and reordered some things in the wrong place, but the problem has persisted. In fact, it's gotten even weirder - today, I was walking over the bridge SE of the IC; there's a highwayman there who normally extorts money from you if you come near. This time, he just gave me the standard Khajiit greeting ("Does it speak? Does it say words?") and otherwise ignored me.
Here's my load order; bash tags according to BOSS are current as of yesterday.
Active Mod Files:00 Oblivion.esm01 EnhancedWeather.esm [Version 1.3]02 Francesco's Leveled Creatures-Items Mod.esm03 Cobl Main.esm [Version 1.71]04 Oscuro's_Oblivion_Overhaul.esm [Version 1.33]05 Mart's Monster Mod.esm [Version 3.6beta3]06 Enhanced Daedric Invasion.esm07 TamrielTravellers.esm [Version 1.39c]08 FCOM_Convergence.esm [Version 0.9.8]09 Better Cities Resources.esm0A NNWAEMaster.esm0B CustomSpellIcons.esm** TweakedGenericFaces.esp0C Unofficial Oblivion Patch.esp [Version 3.2.0]0D DLCShiveringIsles.esp0E Unofficial Shivering Isles Patch.esp [Version 1.4.0]0F Better Cities .esp10 Francesco's Optional Chance of Stronger Bosses.esp11 Francesco's Optional Chance of Stronger Enemies.esp++ FCOM_Francescos.esp [Version 0.9.8]12 EnhancedWeather.esp [Version 1.3]++ EnhancedWeather - Darker Nights, 50.esp [Version Final]++ Advanced_Water_Modification-2734.esp++ Symphony of Violence.esp13 Echo_ChapelChant.esp14 MIS Low Wind.esp15 MIS New Sounds Optional Part.esp16 PCSoundAnnah.esp [Version 2.6]17 OBSE-Storms & Sound.esp18 WindowLightingSystem.esp19 1DeadlyShadows.esp1A AliveWaters.esp1B Book Jackets Oblivion.esp** CNRP Bruma4OOO.esp [Version 0.2]** CNRP Cheydinhal4OOO.esp [Version 1.0]** CNRP Chorrol4OOO.esp [Version 1.1]** CNRP FightersGuild4OOO.esp [Version 1.0]** CNRP DB for OOO.esp [Version 1.0]1C diversegrasses.esp1D DS Time Manager.esp [Version 1.0]++ Item interchange - Extraction.esp [Version 0.74]++ Less Creepy Guild Porters.esp1E Musical Immersion 1.0.esp1F QZ Easy Menus.esp20 RealitySpectre'sBetterPotions.esp21 ReneerCreatureMod.esp22 Reznod_Mannequin.esp23 Enhanced Economy.esp [Version 3.3.4]24 Choices and Consequences.esp [Version 2.0]25 C&C - The Blackwood Company.esp26 sr_super_hotkeys.esp27 Nicoroshi Creations DW Light.esp28 PTArtifacts.esp29 StealthArmor.esp2A mz_Shields.esp2B Thieves Arsenal.esp2C Oblivion WarCry EV.esp2D FCOM_WarCry.esp [Version 0.9.8]2E Oscuro's_Oblivion_Overhaul.esp [Version 1.33b]2F OOO-LightOfDawnFlamesWhenDrawnOBSE_1handed.esp++ OMOBS.esp [Version 1.0]30 Choices and Consequences - OOO.esp [Version 2.0]31 FCOM_Convergence.esp [Version 0.9.8]++ FCOM_SpawnRatesReduced.esp [Version 0.9.8]32 Mart's Monster Mod - Extra Wounding.esp [Version 3.6Beta3]++ Mart's Monster Mod - Looting NPCs & Creatures.esp [Version 3.6Beta3]33 Mart's Monster Mod - No Carrion Rats.esp [Version 3.6Beta3]++ Mart's Monster Mod - No Blood.esp [Version 3.6Beta3]++ Mart's Monster Mod - No Bone Loot.esp [Version 3.6beta3]++ Mart's Monster Mod - No Undead Rise.esp [Version 3.6Beta3]++ Mart's Monster Mod - No Slimes.esp [Version 3.6beta3]++ Mart's Monster Mod - No Lanterns.esp [Version 3.6Beta3]++ TamrielTravellerAdvscript.esp [Version 1.39c]34 TamrielTravellers4OOO.esp [Version 1.39c]++ TamrielTravellersItemsnpc.esp [Version 1.39c]++ FCOM_TamrielTravelers.esp [Version 0.9.8]++ FCOM_FriendlierFactions.esp [Version 0.9.8]35 TIE In.esp [Version 1.07]36 TIE In - FCOM Convergence.esp [Version 1.07]37 TIE In - Game Settings.esp [Version 1.07]++ TIE In - Sounds.esp [Version 1.07]38 SSEE-OOO.esp** C&C - The Blackwood Company - OOO.esp39 Ivellon.esp [Version 1.5]3A Bandit Hideouts.esp3B Better Dark Brotherhood Sanctuary for Cobl & OBSE.esp3C Bottomless Cavern.esp3D Brendi.esp3E CDEP_FanaCeya.esp3F CDEP-UnderpallCave.esp40 FortDragonShirev1.esp41 Fort Ferrion.esp42 Gelden_Halls.esp43 Dirtier Waterfront.esp44 JQ-AssassinQuest.esp45 Kragenir's Death Quest.esp46 LostSwordOfTheAylied.esp47 NNWAREAyleidDungeons_Series1EV.esp [Version 2.1]48 NNWARE01EV-Sercen.esp49 NNWARE02EV-Trumbe.esp4A NNWARE03EV-Piukanda.esp4B NNWARE04EV-Veyond.esp4C NNWARE05EV-Bawn.esp4D Pirate Cove Cavern.esp4E Return Of Shadows.esp [Version 1.03]4F Ruins of Tarnesia.esp [Version 1.0]50 sunk ships.esp51 Sylar_INNMergedCyrodillInnsRevised.esp52 The Arcane Storage.esp53 The Ayleid Steps.esp [Version 3.2]54 Treasure Maps Blood Ransom.esp55 Treasure Maps_Boethia's Burden.esp56 VHBloodlines 1.2.esp [Version 1.4]57 DLCBattlehornCastle.esp58 BattlehornCastleEnhanced.esp59 AFK_Weye.esp5A Enhanced Daedric Invasion.esp++ FCOM_EnhancedDaedricInvasion.esp [Version 0.9.8]5B ElsweyrAnequina.esp5C Reaper's Esmeralda's Desert Manor.esp5D ElsweyrC&CBlackwoodPatch.esp5E ElsweyrAnequinaFemaleBody.esp5F road+bridges.esp [Version 4.5.4]60 Faregyl.esp [Version 1.0.10]61 Faregyl+Anequina Patch.esp62 xulFallenleafEverglade.esp63 Anequina-Fallenleaf-Patch.esp64 xulBeachesOfCyrodiilLostCoast.esp [Version 1.6.3]65 xulBravilBarrowfields.esp [Version 1.3.2]66 xulLushWoodlands.esp [Version 1.3]67 xulAncientYews.esp68 xulBrenaRiverRavine.esp [Version 1.0.2]69 xulAspenWood.esp [Version 1.0.1]6A West Roads.esp6B The Ruins of Miscarcand.esp6C Oblivion Gate Map Marker Remover.esp [Version 1.1.0]6D 300 Arcane University.esp6E Open Better Cities FULL.esp6F OBCBravil-Barrowfields patch.esp70 JQ-Fighters_Guild_United.esp++ FCOM_FighterGUnited.esp71 Ayelid Wells.esp72 Harvest [Flora].esp [Version 3.0.0]73 AutoBookPlacer.esp++ DeadlierDarkBrotherHood.esp74 Leviathan Soulgems.esp++ more books teach.esp75 P1DkeyChain.esp [Version 5.00]76 RenCorpseMod.esp77 Enhanced Vegetation [125%].esp++ SigilStonesUnlevelled - Adjusted.esp78 StarX Vampire Deaths.esp79 Toggleable Quantity Prompt.esp [Version 3.1.1]7A Shadow Ranger.esp [Version 2.9]7B Quest Award Leveller.esp [Version 2.0.1]7C StartChoices.esp7D LessHealthfulRest.esp7E SM Encumbrance and Fatigue.esp [Version 2.1b]7F RealisticForceMedium.esp80 RealisticMagicForceMedium.esp81 StarX Vanilla Vampires Revised.esp82 StarX VVR_OOO Patch.esp83 ArcaneArchery.esp84 attack and hide medium v2.1.esp85 RshAlchemy.esp86 ZumbsLockpickingMod - OBSE.esp87 RenGuardOverhaul.esp88 Smarter Mercantile Leveling - Multi.esp89 RealisticLeveling.esp++ Level_Rates_Modified_x5.esp8A immersive_caves_auto.esp++ Item interchange - Placement for FCOM.esp [Version 0.74]8B Let There Be Darkness - Cyrodiil + SI.esp8C bgBalancingEVCore.esp [Version 10.52EV-D]8D bgMagicEV.esp [Version 1.7EV]++ bgMagicItemSigil.esp [Version 1.68EV]++ bgMagicEVStartspells.esp [Version 1.68EV]++ bgMagicEVAddEnVar.esp [Version 1.68EV]8E bgMagicEVPaperChase.esp [Version 1.68EV]8F bgMagicAlchemy.esp [Version 1.57]++ bgBalancingEVOptionalFCOMAdditions.esp [Version 10.]90 bgBalancingEVLAMEAddition.esp [Version 10.51EV-D]++ bgBalancingEVLAMEGlue.esp [Version 10.0EV-D1.62EV]** bgBalancingEVOptionalNPCDiversityLAME.esp [Version 10.5EV-D]91 bgIntegrationEV.esp [Version 0.962]** bgIntegrationEV - Alternative NPC Faces by LazyMonk.esp [Version 0.95]92 OC+Integration Patch.esp [Version 1.0]93 Better Cities IC Arboretum.esp94 Better Cities IC Arena.esp95 Better Cities IC Elven Gardens.esp96 Better Cities IC Green Emperor Way.esp97 Better Cities IC Market.esp98 Better Cities IC Prison.esp99 Better Cities IC Talos Plaza.esp9A Better Cities IC Temple.esp9B Zero Annoying Comments and Messages.esp9C bgMagicLightningbolt.esp9D DS Flaming Arrows.esp [Version 1.1]++ Magic Projectile Variants.esp++ Visually Realistic Lava.esp++ X-Ray Detect.esp9E Visual Enchantments v1.0.esp9F NRB4 Standard Road Record.espA0 Bashed Patch, 0.esp