This seem very likely, while its nice to have every NPC named and unique, its just not realistic if you want to create believable city environments. I don't like Assassin Creed approach(Two worlds 2 also uses it) for rpgs as the people are so fake, you can't talk to them, they only walk in circles, etc. Though I am sure the approach could be improved, right now I am thinking Fallout methods makes sense and is the most likely. And you can interact with them, more so than Two Worlds 2/Assassins Creed, and they even have limited schedules like in Megaton there was a house were they would sleep.
Oh and Cyrodill esp the capital was definitely underpopulated. Shivering Isles on the other hand was a Ghost town, the main city was a joke, it was lifeless. Morrowind was also underpopulated, Vivec was a Ghost town, now MW with Mods is full of life, add COM and MCA and there are over 1500 NPCS added to the world, Vivec becomes a real city!
Also to the OP I find it odd that your against nameless NPCs and say there not for TES, but you list Daggerfall as the best TES game? Almost all npcs in Daggerfall are generic fill in characters!
Main cost of npc is not radiant AI or name and char info in database, it mesh and textures in addition to tactical AI.
It’s probably just a 1-2% performance to use generic respawning npc like Oblivion guards and bandits. Yes the coding become easier and it would be far easier to populate areas but a lot would be like Morrowind npc unless you give them complex schedule.