I think it is possible the only craft that is going to get a skill is smithing and the other crafting will just be present as mechanics without related skills. They will have their owns rewards but will not be skill based.
Since there are only 18 skills vs. Oblivion's 21, either we lose more than 4 skills, or the crafting is as you suggest, or perhaps linked to other skills.
Pretty sure we're losing heavy armor, light armor, mysticism, blade, blunt and either mercantile or speechcraft, while gaining one-handed, two handed with a remote chance of gaining some sort of a generic armor/armoring skill.
Crafting armor and one-handed or two-handed weapons could be linked to the appropriate combat skill. I have no idea what would govern the effectiveness of cooking, which has been confirmed.