I'm pretty sure that what the emporer's mananauts used were the records of Dwemer astronomers; we have complete observatories. Of course, the Firmament is a modernized collection of what has been known for ages, and the creation myths all speak of the formations, so the lore has been pretty well established prior to Dwemer's star charting.
In other words; its based on ancient, and well established lore, certainly dating past the Dwemer.