The basis is quite simple, though difficult to document with hard numbers. Uncompressed files allow the game to run more smoothly. It's a difference that is noticeable to the point of being more than a placebo effect. Less stutter, even when using OSR. It won't make much difference in terms of FPS though.
It's probably not an Earth-shattering difference which is why it's usually only suggested as a way to squeeze every last drop out. You're trading CPU load during decompression for the file I/O overhead. The file I/O just isn't as much of a burden as the game having to constantly decompress the files - only to find most of the content already compressed anyway since the textures are all .dds format. File I/O concerns also diminish if you keep the drive defragged regularly.
Well, you talk about the textures BSA but the topic here was mostly about meshes. The question you addressed was about meshes, and I was really only talking about meshes. DXT5 compression is nothing compared to the compression of archives... I doubt any nanosecond delays from multiple compression will compound, exactly. I also don't see how textures being loaded would be a noticeable cause of stutter. As you're running outside you hardly come across new textures, as the homogeneity of texture assets is pretty high in any given worldspace. If there weren't load screens between worldspaces and exterior/interior I could see texture loading being stuttery. I think a vast majority of the cause is the content streaming code in the engine, including the LOD system, and the grids. It stutters to figure out what to load, not necessarily stuttering from the loading itself. Most of the stuff you come across while speeding across the landscape probably stays in memory anyway (uncompressed I would imagine, but I could be wrong).
I think meshes would be the biggest introduction of stutter if anything, but even then I'm not sure. Meshes compress a lot better, because of the nature of images, but the uncompressed textures are more or less the same average size of the uncompressed NIFs. But then this means the NIFs are loaded from harddrive fairly quickly when compressed and on-the-fly decompression is basically instantaneous at these file sizes. Decompressing a 40KB mesh probably wouldn't register in milliseconds, nor would a 512KB mesh. But a compressed-at-50KB mesh compared to the original 512KB mesh could be loaded from the HDD 10x as fast (not for just one file, but let's say there are 1000 of them, then it approaches 10x as fast).
Anyway, I guess I will just drop my point. I don't believe that anecdotal evidence is evidence in this case. And when it comes to stutter, going simply on observation can't ever be a good measure... The amount you claim it to actually help is within the realm of possible placebo effect simply by your own definition of the benefits (barely any at all). It's not like it's non-OSR vs OSR, as you say. Even still, I get stutter with OSR, but I'm extremely perceptive. I would notice stutter if I were playing from an SSD (I'm sadly not). I'd probably get vertigo without OSR I would imagine. But at least when I played the other day I noticed no difference in stutter with an uncompressed meshes BSA. I guess my point is that I was asking for some hard technological basis, just not the "it's observed to improve performance" argument, That's what all those old INI tweaks used as their basis and now we know that on a technological level they do absolutely nothing.
I would of course accept "observation" if it was scientific in nature. Like recording video (off-screen, FRAPS can't be trusted) and counting the number of discernible stutters between compressed/uncompressed BSAs. But nobody has the time for that of course. I will at least TRY again to decompress the meshes BSA, and additionally decompress the textures BSA, and test it out informally.