That's my preference in direction, and Oblivion did remove some things that I liked about Morrowind.
I refuse to call Oblivion "dumbed down", for a couple reasons:
1.) It improved in many other areas from Morrowind, and while certain things work so much better for me in Morrowind, there are others that work so much better for me in Oblivion.
2.) Outside of comparing it to Morrowind, I don't believe there is any other game out there that compares in terms of content, choice, and open endedness than Oblivion. Bethesda games are the masters of this, and that is my favorite gamestyle.
No, I don't see Skyrim "dumbing down" the franchise. Yes, there are things it's doing that won't be as good as Morrowind or Oblivion. There are also many other things that it is going to do better. Thus, it can't be dumbed down.