The $80 Imperial edition digital download is currently the third highest PC video game sold on Amazon. Think about that. An $80 video game. PC only, no console versions yet. Yes, we all know about digital downloads direct from the publisher but that is a notable feat. If you are interested, the $60 regular edition is in 17th place.

More than 3 million sold by launch is looking like a not-too-UNreasonable guess. The TES fans are coming through for ZOS. Let's hope ZOS comes through for the TES fans.

Not-to-unreasonable.
Fixt.

It was right in the first place... Not too unreasonable. You're using "to" as in "We're going TO the store." It's used as "We have TOO much" in this case.

to be honest, if ESO has 1.5 - 2 million subscribers in a year I will consider it a great success.

true this. Pre-order sales are, I feel, a miserable indicator of longevity. For obvious reasons. I myself wouldn't have bought pre-order, but the ability to lock in my name choices relatively early, and the option to play any character any alliance were just tempting enough to put me over the top (plus, I hate to admit it - I like the mudcrab pet - something about it...)

but even *I*'m not sure I'll play more than a couple of months - it'll depend a great deal on how the overall game plays (I did beta up till about level 8, so I know enough to know there are things I like, and things I don't, but I really don't have a decent idea of long-term interest) - so, while I definitely pre-ordered, whether I'll still be here 6 months from now depends on the quality of release, the quality of future content, and the quality of the community - all of which could sink or swim over the next few months.

So, I'm not willing to say ESO is a great game yet...not even with lots and lots of pre-orders - ask me in 6 months (if you still care to), and we'll ALL have a better idea of just how good this game might actually be

Heck, if it "only" cost them $200M to develop, a million full year subscribers would give them a payback of a year or so, which would be pretty darned good. With 3M subscribers the future of the franchise should be in good shape for a while, presuming a steady in-flow of content.

Nice catch almost. It should have read "not-too-unreasonable." Will edit.

I guesstimate closer to 2+ rather than -3. We will see how the launch goes. If it tanks, itll lose probably half its player base within the first year. If it does great, itll add 50%. Lots of people are very hesitant to invest in MMOs, especially this one because of the horrible marketing Zenimax has done with this game. Pre orders could have been a LOT higher if they werent so secretive.

Thats just my opinion though

Those sale figures are just pre-orders, which do not take into account how many players are waiting to see how the game goes before they take the plunge.

Then there are the nay-sayers who are waiting for the game to go F2P and will eventually cave in once they realise it is not going to.

Not sure why, but my iPhone auto corrects too to to. It did it just then. Makes absolutely no sense.

With a popular IP like Elder Scrolls it really should get a few million sales. Whether the ordinary experience some people had in Beta and some mediocre reviews play against this let's see. I just had a look and it seemed to be ranked number 6 highest-selling PC title at the moment behind some of the recently released (RPG) games (which are expansions to popular titles) that are doing VERY well.

(just checked - SWTOR which I suppose is a good comparison had a little over 2million sales and initially had 1.7million subscribers).

Call me negative Nancy, 500K subs in 9 months from now.

I'm not going to lie. If this game is anything like every other Elder Scrolls game, I will tear through it in a month or two then put it down for many more months before I feel the desire to play it again.

I full expect it to be Free to Play after a year or so.

I also expect to enjoy it immensely for a short time. If they announced it was going F2P a month after launch I wouldn't be angry about it.

It's a new Elder Scrolls game. Of course I'm excited about it. Yeah, I want to play it on day 1.

But I have no delusions about the MMO market.

If the game cost $200 million to produce they will make back most of their money by launch day, and will likely break even within 3 months. From there it's profits, maintenance, and new content development. Even if subs drop to 500K, they are still clearing $5 million a month easy, that kind of money buys you a whole lot of game.

Under 1 million, or they would be shouting on twitter 3 mill pre purchases!!