
Offhand I can imagine a few possibilities for why a skill would see a sudden drop in effectiveness:
Physical: Ever take an arrow to the knee? The range of motion required to perform many tasks seems to involve only a few muscles, perhaps, but in the act of trying to do it again we find we relied on more than we thought. An inconvenient injury could well account for a sudden failure to swing your blade with the same power, or why that clever one-handed technique is impossible to reproduce. (The limitation here, of course, is there's no hope of convalescing at the Inn over a fortnight; there's still adventuring to be had, and you'll have to fight through that injury if you want to retrain.)
Psychological: Sometimes you get really, really good at something. And then along comes someone who puts your skills to shame, and it rattles you. You start making dumb, noob-class mistakes. Or maybe there was no encounter with someone better, but you had this moment where you tried to do something you've done a million times before, and--whoosh. Nothing. That strike that should have connected, that arrow you shot three feet to the left of that bandit's head, and you just don't know how you could svck like that... And that failure is insidious, takes a deeper toll than you might think. And it takes months to get your confidence back and return to your former, expert self.
Mystical: Back in Morrowind times, there were curses. Mostly these were of Ash-creature provenance, IIRC, and affected attributes directly. But that shouldn't rule out the possibility of curses from other sources, directed at skills, the practical application of attributes. Ever cross one of the Daedra, or a favored priest of the Aedra? Ever let your gaze linger a bit too long upon the daughter of a soothsayer or an augurer? All those bandits you've slain--have you not considered their widows, their daughters, mothers, might be Wise Women, or Hagravens in training? A curse from any of these might well explain a skill that, without consistent practice, inexplicably falters.
Other ideas welcome!
