Here are some interesting previous threads: (I might have missed some other interesting older threads on this topic; I just found those that I had personally made a contribution to)
http://www.gamesas.com/index.php?/topic/1164718-i-think-i-figured-out-the-3-skills-removed/
http://www.gamesas.com/index.php?/topic/1167500-the-sixth-combat-skill/
http://www.gamesas.com/index.php?/topic/1170405-skill-speculation/
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So, here is what I think we can now be pretty certain is the "minimal" skill set - the skills we are pretty sure are in the game:
Magic
Alteration
Conjuration
Destruction
Illusion
Restoration
Enchanting
Combat
One-Handed Weapon
Two-Handed Weapon
Armour
Smithing
?
?
Stealth
Alchemy
Archery
Sneak
Speechcraft
?
?
I previously thought that one of these empty slots would be filled by a combined Athletobatics skill. But now we know that's not the case. Here are, as I see it, the remaining contenders (I may be wrong, of course):
Shield/Block
Light/Heavy Armour (ie. split the Armour skill into two skills; this might mean that Light Armour is a Stealth skill, of course).
Mercantile
Security
Hand-to-Hand
Five skills, four empty slots. Which is the most likely not to make it?
I'm pretty confident that Shield is in.
I'm still confident that Hand-to-Hand is in. There are two reasons. Firstly, there might be ways to increase your damage-dealing ability without weapons, without having a separate skill for Hand-to-Hand - your punches increase in damage as your stamina and health increase, perhaps. But this is a very limited form of unarmed combat. No perks, for instance. So here is the first reason for thinking that Hand-to-Hand is still in as a separate skill: unarmed combat has the potential for an interesting perk tree (disarming, dodging, etc.). The second reason is going by the assumption that Bethesda are trying to have six skills for each of the three main archetypes. Combat requires two more skills; one of them is Shield. Hand-to-Hand is the best candidate for the last Combat skill (the only other plausible candidate, I think, is Light Armour. I think Hand-to-Hand is a better fit as a Combat skill than Light Armour).
I'm undecided between the other three. I probably lean towards thinking that the Armour skill will be separated into two skills. That's because I think there could be distinct enough perk trees for those two skills (Heavy Armour has perks for reducing magic damage, for reducing loss of spell effectiveness, etc; Light Armour has perks for reducing encumbrance, for reducing noise when sneaking, etc.) I'm less sure what the perk trees could be for Mercantile and Security. So I see either Mercantile being folded into Speechcraft, or Security being folded into Sneak.
So here is the complete skill set, as I see it:
Magic
Alteration
Conjuration
Destruction
Illusion
Restoration
Enchanting
Combat
One-Handed Weapon
Two-Handed Weapon
Heavy Armour
Smithing
Shield
Hand-to-Hand
Stealth
Alchemy
Archery
Sneak
Speechcraft
Light Armour
Security OR Mercantile (but not both)
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Of course, another possibility is that there is a new skill, something which hasn't been seen before (or not since Daggerfall?)
Thoughts?