I'm not saying skills should be done away with and that's for the very reason you say. At least Oblivion had the option to do it purely skill based with the auto-pick. And if a player chooses to go at things manually, the Lockpicking skill still helps out by making certain locks easier to pick or with the perks of not having a tumbler fall down. I personally think the lock picking minigame was a sweet spot. There were times where I did it and there were times when i auto-picked. Until I got the Skeleton Key, then it was just mash auto-pick until i unlocked it haha
Also, an interesting thing with Rpg's is that it still is possible to role-play as other characters, as others have mentioned. I do it too. However, it is at a somewhat reduced level but the option is still there
Ah, I had forgot about the auto-pick, that improves matters a lot. I just started playing Oblivion again these last couple of weeks, have only broken about five lockpicks so far, and I was getting a bit angry with the triviality of the whole thing.
As for 'sweet spot', I agree that the lockpicking minigame could have been worse - it could have been the PERSUASION minigame (**shudder**).
I think a 'sweet spot' is the Fallout 3 lockpicking - if you didn't have the skill, you couldn't make the attempt at all.
I agree to some extent with your second comment - I have had a lot of fun with games like Mass Effect that have a watered-down skill/rules system, but put a lot of focus on storytelling. For me, the number one sign of a good role-playing game (old-school or new-school) is that it tells a good story built around your character, and that the choices made effect the story. Rules and skillsets are, in a sense, less important.
But a good set of skills and systems gives the game world an internal logic, and gives consequences to the choices you make in developing your character. I feel that this makes good (and multithreaded) storytelling a lot easier to pull off... and adds greatly to immersion.
The word 'immersion' seems to mean a lot of different things to different people, though, so don't read too much into this...
I can understand (at a conceptual level at least) those that say that it's immersion breaking to be limited by your character's skills. I just think that having meaningless skills and characters that are good at everything, simply because the player knows how to play the minigames, gives a much more jarring sense of unreality.