Overall, I'd suggest that "dying" is more adequate than "evolving." I'm not sure if it's been linked yet, but http://i55.tinypic.com/25stp40.jpg. It definitely seems to reflect some of the direction things have gone. (GRANTED, the screen on the left is from something that was closer to an IF/dialogue game than an actual RPG, but still...)
It's actually something happening across the board in gaming: major developers of the past few years have been taking a "screw the hardcoe players" approach in favor of dumbing-down their games with the idea that they can sell million more: game development, admittedly, has ceased to be a passion project, and is now rooted firmly in cold, faceless business. The goal is no longer to make a "work of art"... But to make a "successful product."
This is what we see in RPGs, too: the serious, hardcoe and in-depth nature is being softened to appeal to the vaguely defined group called "casual gamers." The effects of this shift are already becoming deleterious; in many ways, modern RPGs are as complex as modern FPSes, thanks to the push in FPSes to add "classes" and "ranks" to virtually everything. Eventually it seems like the two genres, along with others, may merge, and variety will be lost.
The irony here, of course, is that the market-based stragey being used is entirely fallacious. Currently, the strategy, spelled out more, is "screw the hardcoe crowd, and entice the casuals: the hardcoes will follow us wherever we go, right?" There's two major problems with that, though. First off, no, the hardcoe crowd WON'T; you'll lose them as you move. Eventually you can lose all of them. On the flip side, there's problems with the casual crowd. For one, they're finicky, even moreso than the hardcoe crowd: they want the best shinies in graphics, and won't forgive ANY readily apparent bugs. Developing a game to target them takes vastly more resources.
And here's the bite:
casual gamers must be re-won every release. You don't hear about the casual crowd playing
Halo: Reach talking about how much they loved
Halo: Combat Evolved or
Halo 2 anymore, now do you? No, once the game's no longer new, it's forgotten. Casual gamers don't cling to anything. So those huge cuts that irked the hardcoe crowd, and massive outlay done to try and bring the casuals on board? You gotta do that EVERY game to keep standing out. It's only the hardcoe crowd that's forgiving enough to cling on and stay loyal game-after-game: the casuals don't see what's so special. It's why, for instance, no one buys EVERY release of
Madden NFL.
A further irony is that
this dumbing-down isn't necessary to get the casuals; it was fallacious enough to think that attracting casuals is the only way to make million-sellers... Far bigger to think that "dumbing down is necessary to make millions of sales." Even if we look at console games, (supposedly the bastion of dumbed-down casual if you ignore the mere existence of
Popcap Zynga...) what do we see as top-sellers? Pretty solidly unsimplified series, like
Metal Gear Solid,
Final Fantasy, etc. These are games that don't bother to streamline: MGS remains ever as thick and incomprehensible in its plot, and FF keeps including convoluted stats. Of course, then there's also
Pokémon, which in spite of its appearance as a "kids game" only advlts could possibly be spending all the time to figure out and tweak with all the countless invisible numbers with Effort Values and the like to min/max their team to the extreme. These games clearly are not "streamlined," yet are making far more sales than
Elder Scrolls,
Dragon Age, or
Mass Effect titles could ever hope to reach.
As a last thing, what really hurts is to see these previously-respectable developers actually going forth, feeling that they are righteous. You havbe things like Todd Howard's horrendous "if Apple made an RPG" comment, which ENTIRELY misses the point on both Apple and RPGs:
- Apple takes bog-standard hardware (they've NEVER used a CPU or GPU that wasn't used in tons of other applications) and packs it up in their own aesthetic... Often sacrificing practicality in the process; they still call it genius, though, even when the tiny design of the iPhone 4 meant that the antenna was prone to problems, and the glass panels prone to cracking.
- Apple software isn't really "streamlined." It just prevents you from doing things that are still there: a pretty rug over a creaky and rotting floor. This is very much the last thing an RPG should do.
In the end, though, this model of business will largely fold, I predict. It could be hurtful to the previous big companies... Possibly, major companies at the forefront of this, like EA and Capcom, are already starting to feel some pinch after alienating so many. Eventually, the big companies may find themselves in financial trouble as their mistakes start to catch up to them. Whether this means they learn from their mistakes and return to making the hardcoe games that are wanted, or die off and are replaced by former-indie developers instead, is an open question.