No it wouldn't be big without Tolkien. Yes it is its own fantasy world but where Tolkien was ridiculously black & white with morality, George Martin has a realistic moral spectrum. Where Tolkien had armies of magic and myth clash, Martin has rare few supernatural beings. Tolkien developed two characters (Sam and Frodo, the rest were barely developed) whereas Game of Thrones has a large cast of well developed characters. Both are great books in their own right but Game of Thrones borrow little and less from Tolkien
I disagree.
First of all, Elder Scrolls manage moral in a black & white form.
Second of all, tolkien didn't managed moral in a black & white form, the all point of the ring its an allegory of what power do to men. There's good, there's evil, and the human are standing as the weakest one's in the middle, fighting for surviving agains't evil, aragorn and faramir trying to resist what theirs family's couldn't, scared of being corrupt. And with this i go to the..
Third point. Tolkien and Martin wanted diferent things. Martin wanted to tell an intricate and real political story, with real characters. Tolkien wanted to create a world loyal to the nordic mythology and write about a story with moral lessons, he has more than a "black and white story" but being him a literature expert, he is full of allegorys and complexity, he also wanted to create a very complex world and culture (Silmarillion) just like almost all real mythology. Neither Martin or Tolkien are better or worse for that, they wanted to tell different things, and both reach their goals as storytellers in a fantastic way that few reach. BUT, as the subject being which one its more similar to skyrim, i would say that tolkien its the answer, the races, the fictional languages, are more tolkien-kind of thing. But if i had the chance to choose freely, i would choose Beowulf kind of world, i mean, there are tolkien influences, but the estetic style i saw in the game was more beuwulf-like imo.
Also, elder scroll have magic in a very different way that all the other books named, tolkien and martin don't have that much magic in their books.
Extra: If i had to choose something from tolkien that i see in elder scrolls, it would be those moments when you meet characters like tom bombadill, talk a few moments with him and then you must go wondering more about him, or when you ride trough a forest and meet unespected friends, or when you enter the ruins of a civilization long gone and found dark creatures that you have awaken...all those feelings of exploration in the unknown, into the ruins of the past, a very complex and rich past, that's the same feeling i get when i played elder scrolls, reading old books, exploring old tragedys from people that lived hundred of years ago.....ahhh such a beautiful and immersive game.
Forgive my english by the way, i wanted to say more and the few i said, better, but english its not my native language so im kind of limited in speechcraft, perhaps i need a magic robe.