Given the state of the game market, I doubt that Beth is going to make FO4 in such a way that casual players can create gimp characters. I would like to see SPECIAL stats have more impact on game mechanics, but I don't think it's going to be like FO1-2.
I'd agree, I doubt that we're going to see the exact same game mechanics from F1-2 in a hypothetical Fallout 4 (though I think it's safe to assume we'll at some point see an F4.) What I would like to see is some more attention payed to this aspect of the game if they do choose to go forward from there. I think a lot of this is just growing pains. They have basically made a completely new game with Fallout 3, and there's going to be a lot of room for refinement your first time out (Oblivion is what... the 4th or 5th Elder Scrolls game? And they're still refining that system and trying to get it work out how they want to...) And that's not saying "Oh, Bethesda never gets anything right, and their rules system always svck." This is something you run into anytime you do something from scratch, the first iteration of a system like this. Dungeons and Dragons is still in a state of refinement, after all.
Anyway, back to the point. I don't think a "good" rules system necessarily needs to allow you to create "gimp" characters. Low INT dialogue was neat to play around with, but not essential. Your PC is always going to be Star of the show, after all. This means that I don't find fault with not being able to make a character that is too weak to get out of bed due to a low STR score, or completely blind (low PER) or so ugly that no one wants to give them a quest ever (low CHA.) I can see a 1 in any stat as being somewhere around the "average" mark, if you balance the game out that way. (Wouldn't really work in a tabletop system, but you can make allowances for a videogame, I should think.) But being able to "hand-hold" casual players doesn't have to mean "dumbed down." I think that's insulting to the intelligence of the average "casual" player. I think they're a lot more capable of understanding concepts than they get credit for. I mean, the Sims is like the ultimate "casual" game, and that actually allows for quite a complex and deep range of interaction within the game. My sister is a "casual" gamer, and it took her a day or two to really get the hang of that game, but the interface was intuitive enough, and the gameplay compelling enough that it was able to keep her interest through the end of the learning curve.
What I would like to see is a greater importance on the stats, if you're even going to decide to have them. As it stands, I think F3 could have worked just as well without them at all. All you really rely on are skills anyway. Maybe a couple traits to choose from at the start to individualize your character (Smarty-pants trait gives you more skill points each level, Charismatic trait opens up dialogue options, Bruiser trait gives you extra damage, or whatever.) But you don't really need Attributes in Fallout 3 - it feels to me like they designed the game and then shoehorned the Attributes in there. As opposed to coming up with the rules system, how the Attributes work, and then building a game around how those interact. So if we see a Fallout 4, I'd just like them to decide which way they want to go. Either make Attributes mean something and design from the ground up a game that makes them have a point - or just do away with it altogether. I don't think that would be an inherently bad move, either. Even from a "hard-core" tabletop gamer - I've played plenty of deep and involving games that only used skill levels to define success. If it doesn't bring anything to the game, then why even put it in there? It's notable to me for how it doesn't work in Fallout 3 - without it I not only wouldn't have a leg to stand on with criticizing the system, I also wouldn't personally find any fault in their exclusion.
I mean, look at all the impact Attributes have in a small thing like deciding which gun you want to shoot your enemy with in Fallout 1:
STR determines whether or not I want to use a heavier weapon. I can get by with lighter guns or just handguns, even - but I don't get the bonuses that a huge heavy weapon like a Missile Launcher is going to have. I still have a choice, I can choose to shoot a Bazooka with a STR 1, I just have to make up for that negative modifier with a higher skill level. STR lets me do more damage, but likely I'll have lower points in another Attribute to even out that bonus.
PER tells me whether I fight enemies at range, or if I need to get up close and personal. Maybe that high PER is countered by a lower END score, so I need to keep out of range in order to survive. Or maybe my PER is so low that I'm better off just closing the distance and going melee. Perhaps I put more points into END to counter a low PER so that I can take a couple more shots in closing the distance to my enemies. Or even a higher AGI so that I can get closer quicker.
END tells me how long I can stay in a heated battle. With a high enough END and some good armor, I don't even really need very high weapon skills - I can keep missing my shots because I can just soak up the damage. With a low END, I have to alter my tactics. Every Action Point counts when I can only take a couple shots before going down. Low enough END and I might not even last until my next round - high enough and I can take a full round of enemies shooting at me before I need to heal myself.
INT determines what my options really are. Maybe I have a low INT because I wanted better scores somewhere else. The character still works just fine with fewer skill points per level, I just need to focus my efforts more than others might. I have enough bonuses in other areas that more specialized skill selections aren't that much of a drawback. And with a high INT, the extra skill points are the reward for sacrificing myself in other areas.
AGI is all about what I can do in a combat turn. Do I go for a slower weapon that might do more damage? Or something that fires quickly so I can afford to miss a shot or two? If I have low PER, I might raise my AGI a bit so that I can close the distance. Or maybe I have a low INT, but with a higher number of Action Points, I can fire an extra time or two so that while I miss more often I can still have a chance to do some damage each turn. Or I counter a low AGI with a high PER so that while I might only get off one shot a turn, I have a good chance of making that shot at distance.
Or maybe I just put all my points in CHA so that I might not even have to get into combat.
There's just a whole range of options with the old systems. You can put a lot of thought into how you want to define your character. And your character stats will help to determine which tactics are more succesful than others. I do believe that there needs to be a chance to "fail" in a game. You really can't make a character in F1-2 that can't make it through the game. You just have to focus on your strengths. If there's no chance of failure, if every character you make has the same chance of being efficient with any mode of play - then what's the incentive for actually being succesfull? What's the reward?
I don't see this same level of depth in Fallout 3. And I don't really see the advantage to their system. Sure, not all players want to put that much thought into their characters. But that's what pre-made characters are for in the first place. You could have completely solved any chance of the player picking the "wrong" Stats in Fallout 3 with pre-made characters.