All right, since my employment gives me plenty of time to think about these things, I’ve managed to make a logical breakdown of what we’re liable to get in terms of Skyrim DLC. My whole premise is based on several possibly wrong assumptions, so keep that in mind while reading. These assumptions are that there will be one or more DLCs after Dragonborn, that this excludes any Hearthfire-sized DLC, and that Bethesda has learned from their own previous DLC efforts, but retains the members of the writing staff attached to the plot. Similarly, I’m only taking this in terms of the writing/story perspective, NOT in terms of what might be fun gameplay, as I believe that if the story is done correctly, the mechanics will follow suit.
TL;DR: In the case of all past DLCs, Bethesda has expanded upon ideas created but not fully fleshed out in the main game. This has previously been said to be done intentionally, but sometimes has been done when they have wanted to include things in the base game, but didn’t because they ran out of time or money. Therefore, logically, the next true DLC will take ideas that have those qualities, but have not already been expanded upon in Dawnguard or Dragonborn.
The Evidence
Oblivion: Taking it one game at a time, and beginning with Oblivion, which I would qualify as having the first true DLC of a Bethesda game, and thus is the trend setter. This also does not include the more disastrous or household DLCs, like the new homes or horse armor. We take a look at Knights of Nine, which expands upon the theology and ideas of Tamriel as a whole, taking a closer look at things mentioned off hand. Shivering Isles takes one daedric lord, who admittedly had the best daedric quest, and shows us his realm. These are both examples of taking the ideas portrayed before, and fleshing them out with a DLC.
Fallout 3: Fallout 3’s DLC is great because they had figured out what did and didn’t work already with Oblivion. The Pitt expanded upon the institution of slavery in the Wasteland, which we only knew about the effects, and not the why. Broken Steel was fantastic, because while it developed an idea, it was an idea that’s rarely shown in games, and that’s what happens when the PC actually achieves his/her goal. Mothership Zeta, while my least favorite DLC, follows the pattern by taking the minor element of alien monitors of human society (as alien stuff could be found before the DLC) in the Fallout universe and expanding upon it. Anchorage takes the rarely seen war with China and turns it into a battlefield simulation, though admittedly not an accurate one. Point Lookout does another approach, taking not one, but two off-handed elements of the game, and turning them into the DLC. This is mostly fixated upon how much life svcked in the pre-Great War world, but at the same time, shows us the off-handed occult stuff that was only barely referenced by the creepy as hell Dunwich Building.
Fallout: New Vegas: Yeah, I know, this isn’t Bethesda, and therefore is harder to claim that it fits in the pattern. But the pattern does exist, and the FNV DLCs were successful, and frankly, the best DLCs I’ve ever played, so we’ll include it anyways, because they still do fit. Dead Money expanded upon the absent Elder of the Brotherhood of Steel, as well as various other briefly mentioned elements. Honest Hearts takes the references to the fallen Legate and turns it into a DLC (along with other shoutouts to areas of the base game). Old World Blues further references elements briefly mentioned in the base game, as well as in the other DLC and turns it into a hilarious sci-fi masterpiece. Lonesome Road takes a single sentence from the base game about a courier who refused the job, and turns it into a brutal journey.
Skyrim: Once more, we’re excluding Hearthfire in this discussion. Dawnguard does something similar to the FNV DLC and Point Lookout by not taking a single element of the base game, but multiple elements. Dawnguard fleshed out the ideas of Skyrim’s vampires, the snow elves, and even gave us some new insight into the Dwemer. Dragonborn on the other hand, took as its primary influence the Red Year, and the de facto destruction of Morrowind and the nation of the Dunmer and worked from there to expand to other references to that game.
What Lies Ahead
Now we get to the present with Skyrim. As I showed you, Bethesda appears to take briefly mentioned elements of their base games to turn into elaborate DLC. In the case of both FNV and Skyrim, the hints were already present in the games loading screens. Of course the problem with Skyrim, is that with so many books, any number of off-hand comments made by the ingame authors or characters could be turned into a DLC. So we have to guess that they’re probably going to follow the old plan and work from material they already having, which is the stuff we occasionally see in the loading screens We can work from the assumption that Bethesda won’t revisit things that formed the basis of the past two DLCs. Therefore we can probably safely guess that we won’t be seeing more on snow elves, vampires, dragon priests, the idea of the Dragonborn, Morrowind, or the Dunmer in general. I may also go as far to suggest that we won’t be seeing any more daedric realms. So what does that leave us with in the base game that could still be expanded upon in a DLC?
Stuff We May See
1. The Moot and higher politics of Skyrim: Obviously this would go hand in hand with a Broken Steel style DLC, and frankly, I have bet upon this already.
2. The Great Collapse: Yes it has a single book, and a bunch of moaning from citizens in Winterhold. Still, we know very little about it, and it really does feel like an open ended concept which they planned on developing earlier. Still, this could easily be resolved as a side quest in any number of DLC types, much like the Aetherium Forge with Dawnguard.
3. The orc strongholds: I know a Orsinium DLC has already been talked to death on these forums, and for good reason. I certainly wouldn’t bet against such a DLC, though I don’t think it’ll be the next one.
4. Witches: This could go hand in hand with a DLC about the Forsworn, but we can look at the Hagravens at Orphan Rock OR the ones that cursed the Companions as examples separate from the Forsworn cause. Personally, I’d love to see a witch based DLC, simply because there’s a lot of possibility there for both magical enhancement and new lore. We know very little about witches/hagravens, and I really do think there’s significant room for expansion on that topic.
5. Giants: We know absolutely nothing about giants beyond their space program. Yet, they’re all over the place, much like vampires before Dawnguard. Furthermore they’re all identical, offer nothing but bounties and fairly rare alchemy ingredients. If there’s anything in Skyrim just crying out for a DLC based on it, it’s giants.
6. Dwemer and Draugr: This is my only pattern breaker, as we already have so much stuff on them. My main reasoning here is that Dwemer and Draugr are so ingrained in Skyrim, that’s its highly unlikely there’ll ever be a DLC without them. Plus, there’s still plenty of mystery about them, and I figure it’s highly unlikely either group will be present in ESVI. Therefore, I bet in any new DLC, there’ll be at least one new dungeon for both Dwemer and Draugr.
Stuff We Probably Won’t See
1. Any other surrounding provinces: The sole exception is Orsinium. Overall though, I just doubt they’ll go so far as to include any cities from Hammerfell, Morrowind, Cyrodiil, or High Rock. At best we might get another dungeon or something that overlaps, but frankly, I’d be really surprised if we wind up adventuring outside of the growing game borders of Skyrim or the homeland of the orcs.
2. Anything new about the Thalmor: As much as most of us would love to kill all elves, I’m willing to put money on that they’re saving any big reveals or new information on the Thalmor for ESVI. While we might get a Thalmor agent as an antagonist for some side quest, I really bet that they want to save the development of the overall Thalmor for the next game, which’ll likely be on their home turf in Elsweyr or even the Summerset Isles. The vaguer they keep the Thalmor now, the easier it’ll be for them when ESVI is being worked on.
3. Snow Elves: I think Dawnguard covered the topic sufficiently, and there’s really not much more to explore with the Falmer or Snow Elves. Really the only thing we don’t know about them is why they need slaves. But that’s hardly worthwhile to explore in a DLC, even as a side quest.
The Big Finish
So, yeah, that about covers everything I’ve got to say on what we could see in a new DLC. All I’ve got left is to speculate on what it means. Personally, I think we’re looking at two more full sized DLC, and probably 1-3 Hearthfire sized ones too. My own wagers are that first we get a Broken Steel style DLC, which expands upon all of the currently existing factions. This could neatly incorporate the higher politics of Skyrim, the Great Collapse, and witches all into varied new quests for the Companions, College, DB, and Thieves Guild. The second DLC is probably going to be Orsinium, in which we’ll probably get and expansion on the orcs, and I’m going to bet on a war between giants and orcs to be in the space. Mostly because that’d be awesome. For the “little” DLCs, I’d like to see some varied home-building or development stuff like we got with Oblivion. This could include the creation of a new town and management of said settlement, reclaiming and maintaining a fort, OR a hard-core mode added in similar to that of FNV. Insert Fry “Shut up and Take my Money” meme here.