My plan is to have the Hlaalu patrol spawn and patrol fairly regualrly... say you have a 40% chance of seeing them. Then near the crossroads I plan to have a stationary group of wild bandits hiding in ambush that are set to attack when the guards patrol past... these will have like a 20% chance to spawn and then only if they detect the patrol is in the cell. So what we are left with is that the guard patrol will be seen fairly often but the attacking group will spawn quite rarely making the fight pretty rare to see and thus the chance of getting loot pretty rare. Also the bandits won't be much of a match for the guards being a lower level and with worse gear so it is very unlikely they will win the fight. This again will mean that the loot you will find near balmora will most likely just be some common clothes, iron weapons and perhaps some light armor. I think that by thinking cleverly about game balance when designing the encounters I can preserve game balance without breaking immersion and stretching game logic.
That sounds a really good approach. I think if you
sometimes see a guard patrol, sometimes encounter some bandits (or Sixth House, rogue Telvanni, or whomever), sometimes see no-one at all but
occasionally see both groups, and therefore some sort of confrontation, that would feel really natural & make things feel unpredictable.
The more random things are/ seem the better, in other words. (Except maybe in the above example the guards might sight & then attack the bandits .. as opposed to the other way round ... since low level bandits wouldn't be v. likely to attack well armed House Guards. Ambushes
against Imperial or House patrols might come from Sixth House, Cammona Tong or other militant Dunmer, or by unofficial militia from opposing Houses, maybe?)
Also, you could maybe have
several bandit spawn points (in the previous example), but each with a very low chance of spawning ... say 5% each, or something ... so the overall chance of seeing bandits somewhere along a particular route would be about the same, except you'd never know exactly where, but maybe that's overcomplicating things!? :wacko: